[NL2-NL10] KQ TP plus 2nd nut flush draw on turn

    • gggeorgio
      gggeorgio
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 494
      Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
      4 players
      Converter

      Stack sizes:
      UTG: $29.88
      Hero: $24.50
      SB: $19.01
      BB: $45.47

      Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with K:club: Q:diamond:
      UTG calls, [color:#cc0000]Hero raises to $1.25[/color], 2 folds, UTG calls.

      Flop: J:club: 5:diamond: 6:club: ($2.85, 2 players)
      UTG checks, [color:#cc0000]Hero bets $2.25[/color], UTG calls.

      cbet on the flop

      Turn: Q:club: ($7.35, 2 players)
      UTG checks, [color:#cc0000]Hero bets $5[/color], [color:#cc0000]UTG raises to $21.5[/color], [color:#cc0000]Hero calls all-in $16[/color].
      Uncalled bets: $0.5 returned to UTG.

      The turn gives me TPGK and UTG checks so I bet strong since I'm putting him on a draw. When he reraises me all in, I decided to call it because I might already be ahead if he's semi-bluffing a strong draw or something (doesn't seem to happen much at this limit), and even when I'm behind a club, Q or K are all probable outs unless he's got a set (then K, Q aren't outs anymore). Anyways my question is whether this was a good call or if I should have mucked my cards.

      Also I didn't have any reads on this opponent yet, but later found out that he was a real fish who ended up giving me 6 buy-ins in 2 hours!! :D I'll be updating my blog, with some of the hands where this guy just gave me his money...
  • 6 replies
    • generals007
      generals007
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.09.2007 Posts: 578
      Bet you have to call: 16,5
      Potsize: 7,35+5+21.5= 33.85

      => pot odds ~ 2:1
      Odds on hitting flush on river: 9/46 ~ 4:1

      For me those are sufficing odds since you already have overpair and he only beats you with set or AQ. But it would be a borderline call.

      gen
    • gggeorgio
      gggeorgio
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 494
      hey generals,

      here's what i was thinking
      odds of hitting flush/2 pair/trips = 14 (9 flush, 2 Q, 3 K)
      so about 2.3:1

      This isn't quite good enough odds, but if you add the probability that he's bluffing or semibluffing which is at least 10%, I think it makes it a call.
    • generals007
      generals007
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.09.2007 Posts: 578
      I don't think you can argue with two pair or trips here. If he's got you beat he's got a set or AQ. Anything else you're beating with QK anyways. If he's got a set he beats your two pair and he beats your trips with a full house. Those outs are no use imo.

      gen
    • gggeorgio
      gggeorgio
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 494
      good point, they cant count as full outs.

      but they still count for something, as they are outs against certain hands (the K is 3 outs against AQ, K and Q are 5 out against an overpair)
    • generals007
      generals007
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.09.2007 Posts: 578
      Ya, but that's not a whole lot imo.

      He's pretty much never got Aces here. He'd have raised em preflop and reraised them if you raised too. So overpair is out of the question for me there.
      Only hand your outs would help is AQ imo. And that's one hand, you can't make your call dependent on him holding AQ.

      For me that is a close-to-flat 4:1

      gen
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      This is a spot where I go for pot control. I check behind the turn and call the river. That way you don't blow up the pot and induce a bluff.

      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar