[NL2-NL10] nl10 AK$

    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 2,952
      MP: $20.05 (200.5 bb)
      CO: $10 (100 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $24.54 (245.4 bb)
      SB: $6 (60 bb)
      BB: $17.84 (178.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with K:club: A:club:
      MP folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.35, BB folds, CO calls $0.30

      Flop: ($1.30) 4:club: Q:spade: K:spade: (3 players)
      SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $0.95, SB calls $0.95, CO folds

      Turn: ($3.20) 2:spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.10, SB calls $2.10

      River: ($7.40) 4:heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $2.55 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.55

      He was 67/37 2 agr 23% 3b 53h so I wanted go all in with him with TPTK even on FD on. I think I still get valu from worse hands, what do you think about it?
  • 7 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think it's fine but I would bet 1.50 on Turn and shove the River. When he donk bets the River and if it's a half pot bet, it's probably a fold, but as played you are kind of committed with 20% pot odds so I would call.


      Thanks
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 2,952
      so your advice is b/f 1.5 on T right? and If he wait shove R otherwise fold ?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Yup I think it would be very easy to b/f Turn and fold to a donk push if there was more money left behind.
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 2,952
      So I can make:
      3) Vs no aggressive fish if FD hit the board and fish’s stack size is ~2xpot IP I should b/f ~50% pot size on T. Shove R if fish doesn’t donk PSB / shove otherwise fold
      As my game plan, right?

      What if he donk on R for half of his stack?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I agree that you should bet smaller with your thin value bets (AK becomes a thin value bet when the flush completes, as you lose to more made hands now).

      However, I think the important thing to note is the remaining stack sizes. We can easily push the river with a half pot bet so betting larger on the Turn doesn't make sense.

      If he donks half his stack on the River, that would be really awkward. if we call here, we shouldn't fold to a 25% pot bet right?
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 2,952
      yeah that's why asking you. From hand evaluation I want to build my game plan. I don't really understand you. I should b/f on T and if he call just call R?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Ok I think this is just best solved by pokerstove. Of course my calculations could be way off, maybe he doesn't check/call twice with JT with a single spade, and bluff the River. Maybe he randomly bets the River with KJ or KT. I don't know for sure.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 22.22% 22.22% 0.00% AcKc
      MP3 77.78% 77.78% 0.00% 44, KQs, KTs, AsTs, JsTs, As9s, Js9s, Ts9s, As8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, Js7s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, Js6s, 8s6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KQo, As4d, As4h, As4c, JdTs, JhTs, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, JcTs

      I gave him many flush combos, some 4X, and some JT bluffs. That gives us somewhere between 20-25% equity.

      Vs a halfpot bet on the River, we get 25% equity. So I think it is really close. If we had a single spade in our hand like the Ace or King of spade, it would be much closer to a call cos we would effectively block a good number of flushes from villain's range.