[NL2-NL10] nl 5 QQ

    • DrRaab
      Joined: 05.12.2011 Posts: 694
      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP1: $1.61 (32.2 bb)
      MP2: $8.73 (174.6 bb)
      MP3: $3.41 (68.2 bb)
      CO: $7.18 (143.6 bb)
      BTN: $4.52 (90.4 bb)
      SB: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
      BB: $6.23 (124.6 bb)
      Hero (UTG+2): $5.13 (102.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q Q
      MP3 posts BB OOP, Hero raises to $0.20, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.20, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.20, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.74) J 7 K (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.45, MP2 folds, BTN calls $0.45

      Turn: ($1.64) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1, BTN folds

      villain was 16/5 in 145 hands, 75 percent call cbet.
      I bet the turn due to such a high frequency call cbet to fold out hands such as KQ, KJ and flush draws
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      You are never folding out a King (let alone KJ which is two pairs). If you want to bet this turn, you should be expecting him to call some JX on the Turn (does he even call that on the Flop when you cbet 3way?) as well as have a ton of straight and flush draws (maybe even club backdoor draws).

      If these criteria are not met, then I don't think you have a value bet here. But given that he calls the Flop with such a wide range, I think we can expect him to be loose here, so I actually don't mind making this thin Turn value bet. Of course we have to c/c if all the draws miss on the River.

      However, I would like to point out that we have some blockers to his possible floating hands. We have 2 Qs, which reduces the likelihood of him having QT AQ, and we have the Qc and Qs, which reduces the likelihood of him having a flush draw as well. That may make me lean towards c/c Turn.