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[NL20-NL50] 25shz KQs BU

    • AtrociousNightmare
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $25 (100 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)
      BB: $13.60 (54.4 bb)
      UTG: $25.26 (101 bb)
      MP: $25.34 (101.4 bb)
      CO: $21.93 (87.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with K Q
      UTG raises to $0.75, MP folds, CO calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($2.60) A Q K (3 players)
      UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets $2, UTG folds, CO calls $2

      Turn: ($6.60) 7 (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $4.99, CO raises to $9.98, Hero folds

      $16.58 pot ($0.91 rake)
      Final Board: A Q K 7
      Hero mucked K Q and lost (-$7.74 net)
      CO mucked and won $15.67 ($7.93 net)

      UTG: VPIP: 25, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 1,0, Hands: 55
      CO: VPIP: 36, PFR: 21, 3B: 8, AF: 2,0, Hands: 47

      PF maybe is a bit marginal but I was going to search for twopair+.

      Twopair indeed comes but it's not the greatest and his raise on turn after XC flop in 3way made me think of straights, twopairs with Aces.
      I don't see what could have done that that is worse than mine :(
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I'm just trying to see if he can show up with worse hands. I don't get why he would check flop with AQ AK JTs unless he thinks you bluff the Flop a lot. His most likely hands are A7s, but I'm not putting him on 77 or backdoor clubs. Could he have KcTc KcJc QcTc QcJc? Doesn't make too much sense to me to check a monster on the Flop.

      But when I look at his stack size, i know he's a fish, and fishes just love slowplaying. Maybe he has K7 and Q7 too, though I think passive players are just much more unlikely to minCR turn with the turned draw.

      We are getting really great odds but the best case scenario doesn't even look too good for us. So I don't really mind folding here.

      Best case scenario

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 36.70% 26.70% 10.00% KsQs
      MP3 63.30% 53.30% 10.00% AQs, KQs, K7s, Q7s, JTs, KcJc, QcJc, KcTc, QcTc, AQo, KQo