[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH KJs top pair facing flop raise

    • mihninho
      mihninho
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.04.2009 Posts: 648
      PartyGaming - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: $60.40
      BB: $134.92
      UTG: $50.50
      Hero (CO): $51.32
      BTN: $50.00

      SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has K:heart: J:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, fold, fold

      Flop: ($3.75, 2 players) Q:heart: K:club: 3:spade:
      Hero bets $2.67, BTN raises to $6.50, Hero calls $3.83

      Turn: ($16.75, 2 players) 8:heart:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $11.94, Hero calls $11.94

      River: ($40.63, 2 players) 9:club:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $30.06 and is all-in, fold

      BTN wins $38.60

      Villain is unknow practically i have 20 ish hands with him.I don't have any stat that he is raising lighly on flop.he was VPIP 18 PFR 18, in his range can be KQ AK or even 33 but also TJ QT KJ KT.I had a backdoor FD and top pair so i decided to call and re evaluate on turn, another heart came so should i go all in because i think folding is weak.But on the river all of his JT hit.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      By default I would call the Flop raise cos he can have a bunch of gutshot bluffraises. I would probably fold the Turn without having picked up the hearts.
    • mihninho
      mihninho
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.04.2009 Posts: 648
      Ok so i have the guys stats now can i have a re evaluation?

      He plays VPIP 21 PFR 19 he has a WTSD value of 31 3bet 7% . He has an AF of 2.7 of flop , 4 on turn and 3 on the river.He folds to flop cbet 45 %.Sample of 561 hands.He also has a 22 raise to flop cbet.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I think cbet turn and river are generally more useful in deciding how often a player keeps bareeling his bluffs.

      Anyway the flop raise stat makes our call on the flop good for sure, and the river completes JT so easy fold. Not sure if this guy raises JT on the flop cos most people dont. But at nl50 i dont expect people to continue barreling gutshots too often.

      Thanks.