[NL2-NL10] NL10 99 Push/Fold?

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Party Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
      Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

      SB: $1.75 (17.5 bb)
      BB: $12.26 (122.6 bb)
      UTG+2: $10.61 (106.1 bb)
      MP1: $11.17 (111.7 bb)
      MP2: $2.04 (20.4 bb)
      MP3: $10.38 (103.8 bb)
      Hero (CO): $1.60 (16 bb)
      BTN: $20.51 (205.1 bb)

      Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 9
      UTG+2 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 3 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1.60, Hero calls $1.15 and is all-in

      Flop: ($3.35) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      Turn: ($3.35) A (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($3.35) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)


      According to Remaining Stack : Original raise I am on 2,555555 so on the edge.
      I decided to put my money here because I have to invest $1.15 in order to win $2.6 so 1:2. and Villain's VP$IP is 17 so I think it's profitable to push because my equity against VP$IP 17 on UTG with 99 is basically 51/49~ . So I pushed.

      Is my way of thinking correct? if not please correct me thanks :)
  • 4 replies
    • Midazolam
      Midazolam
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.09.2007 Posts: 7,820
      Why do you raise 4.5BB and not 5BB?
      I would raise 5BB and push to reraise.



      I decided to put my money here because I have to invest $1.15 in order to win $2.6 so 1:2. and Villain's VP$IP is 17 so I think it's profitable to push because my equity against VP$IP 17 on UTG with 99 is basically 51/49~ . So I pushed.
      That is not correct.
      You invest 1.15 to win 3.35 -> Pottodds 2,91:1 -> required equity 25.57%
      To decide to push or fold you have to think about villains 3-bet-range(reraise range) that is not the VPIP. It´s tighter than the PFR.
      I don´t know if the elephant can show you the 3-bet-range, but I would guess tight range at NL10 for unkown player is TT+ AQo+ AQs+ (4.7%)
      Now you take pokerstove/equilator and look for the equity of your hand against this 3-bet range.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 37.260 % 37.058 % 0.404 % 62.538 % 99
      Player 2: 62.740 % 62.538 % 0.404 % 37.058 % TT+, AQs+, AQo+

      As you can see to push is EV+ (if the 3-bet-range is correct)

      (I forgott to calculate the rake for a very good calculation, but I would preflop use simply the Remaining Stack : Original raise rate it is much easier and faster to calculate)
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I raise from CO 3.5BB +1p/limper, BTTn 3BB + 1p/limper ;)
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      I would probably fold 99 if my stack:pot ratio would be 1:2,5 or around it. But if you decide to push, you have to make a note what he limp/reraised you with to bust him next time.
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      Hi Gerv,

      when utg only limp raises TT+,AQs+,AKo then you can fold, but sometimes players limp raises any pocket against sss players to induce folds so a call is ok. I call make a note and continue playing.



      Ysessa