[NL20-NL50] NL25 over pair + oesd

    • bigdwong
      bigdwong
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 305
      Poker Stars Zoom, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players


      Hero (BTN): $48 (192 bb)
      SB: $26.66 (106.6 bb)
      BB: $25.92 (103.7 bb)
      UTG: $26.71 (106.8 bb)
      MP: $13.75 (55 bb)
      CO: $20.92 (83.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9:diamond: 9:heart:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB raises to $1.25, BB folds, Hero calls $0.75

      Flop: ($2.75) 7:spade: 6:heart: 8:club: (2 players)
      SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

      Turn: ($6.75) 2:club: (2 players)
      SB bets $4.75, Hero ?

      What do we think of villain's range after the turn bet? If I call here, it should be a fairly easy 3rd barrel on the river for him given my range is pretty capped except for the odd slow played straights like T9s, 95s, and 54s. And I assume if he's 2 barreling bluffs here, he'll also 3 barrel them.

      That being said, he has a decent amount of overpair vbet hands in his range so it's hard to bluff catch the river if we get there. Therefore I'm thinking that calling the turn puts us in a horrible position to play the river.

      Does that mean we should shove the turn? Problem is we're not getting any better to fold or any worse to call us pretty much. Thoughts?
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hola,

      The best hand villain can have on that board in his 3betting range will be stuff like 78s which don't even 3bet 100% of the time so I'd say AA is his best hand quite often. Against that you have 40%. Raise as a thin value/semibluff and stack off here imo. Villain has a super tough decision with AA/KK type hands while you always always always have very good equity plus no implied odds so pushing that equity edge now is best.
    • bigdwong
      bigdwong
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 305
      Hey Emanuel thanks for the reply.

      Vs. an overpair like AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT I actually have 23% on the turn.

      Do you think he has a tough decision to fold to a raise with those hands though? What value hands am I repping besides 12 combos of T9s, 95s, and 54s that I'm calling him with preflop.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by bigdwong
      Hey Emanuel thanks for the reply.

      Vs. an overpair like AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT I actually have 23% on the turn.

      Do you think he has a tough decision to fold to a raise with those hands though? What value hands am I repping besides 12 combos of T9s, 95s, and 54s that I'm calling him with preflop.
      Oh, I meant flop. Don't call, just raise. :)