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[NL20-NL50] nl20 Nut Flush Draw on Flop vs Aggression From Nit

    • Ghartman
      Joined: 28.10.2011 Posts: 273
      $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Seat 5 is the button
      Seat 1: Player1 ( €37.10 EUR ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 24, 3B: 10, AF: 0.6, Hands: 164
      Seat 2: Player2 ( €22.61 EUR ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 2.8, Hands: 2381
      Seat 3: Player3 ( €34.21 EUR ) - VPIP: 24, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 1.8, Hands: 827
      Seat 4: Player4 ( €8.27 EUR ) - VPIP: 53, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 2.0, Hands: 607
      Seat 5: Player5 ( €17.64 EUR ) - VPIP: 15, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 5.1, Hands: 1129
      Seat 6: Hero ( €44.73 EUR ) - VPIP: 24, PFR: 18, 3B: 9, AF: 2.1, Hands: 78846
      Hero posts small blind [€0.10 EUR].
      Player1 posts big blind [€0.20 EUR].

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 4 A
      UTG folds, MP raises to $0.60, CO folds, BTN calls $0.60, Hero calls $0.50, BB folds

      Flop: ($2) 6 3 9 (3 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $1.40, BTN raises to $6.20, Hero????

      Ok, being slightly deeper, I could have squeezed this hand pre-flop oop but I don't mind peeling occasionally with this type of hand.

      Anyhow, we get a nice flop and I check with the intention of either raising or just flatting depending on the action. So the original raising REG cbets and I'm ready to just call if the BTN either flats or folds. He raises however and I was a little unsure about the best play here? Should I just be shoving or just calling and trying to improve? I reckon I'm obviously behind his value range here as he is a total nit:

      Board: 9:diamond: 6:spade: 3:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     58.69%  58.69%   0.00% { 99, 66, 33, KsQs, QsJs, JsTs, 9s8s, 8s7s }
      SB     41.31%  41.31%   0.00% { As4s }

      and being deeper I'm not sure if getting it in on a draw is correct albeit the nut draw. What is the best play here, just get it in or call? Let me know what you think.

  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Ghartman,

      Do you think that the nitty guy will raise a cbet multiway (large) with a weak hand? Do you think he can raise draws?

      I think his range is mostly sets and maybe a rare overpair.

      So I doubt we have any FE and I really doubt that he raises hands like KQss (like you listed below).

      So calling is the only real option we have (besides folding).