[NL20-NL50] Game theory question: Bluff frequency

    • bigdwong
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 305
      Hey guys this question is for the game theory gurus.

      Here's the scenario: Villain cbets 60 into a 100 dollar pot, making the total pot 160.

      We know that he is folding 50% of the time, and continuing 50% of the time to a raise.

      What is the appropriate bluff raise frequency? Is it 50% of our raises should be bluffs and the other 50% value hands?

      Obviously there are different raise sizes too. Should we be raising to 160 (given we still think his fold frequency will be 50% at that size) because that gives us 1:1 on our bluff and we need him to fold 50% to break even?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi bigdwong,

      What are you trying to achieve here? Do you want to be unexploitable and make him indifferent between calling and folding? Or do you want to maximize your EV? Game Theory Optimal strategies are essentially defensive strategies used to defend yourself from getting exploited.

      If you want to maximize your EV by taking the maximum exploitive line, then your strategy is not Game Theory Optimal.

      For example if he is folding 50% of the time, irregardless of our raise size, and assuming he never adjusts, I would just min-raised every single time with my air, and overbet shove with my nuts. This would be the way to maximize our EV vs someone who doesn't adjusts his frequencies.

      His bluff catching frequency should be based on your raise size - The smaller your raise size is, the less often you need to be bluffing.

      I don't think you have enough parameters stated here. What is his range? What is your range? How many air or nut hands you have?

      I should also point out that if you are playing microstakes, ignore Game Theory for now and just on pure exploitive play for now