[NL20-NL50] NL25 AQ bluff

    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,288
      Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $57.55 (230.2 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $29.93 (119.7 bb)
      SB: $28.94 (115.8 bb)
      BB: $42.23 (168.9 bb)
      MP: $25 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q A
      MP raises to $0.75, CO folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) 9 6 T (2 players)
      MP bets $1.17, Hero raises to $4.25, MP calls $3.08

      Turn: ($10.35) 5 (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $6, MP calls $6

      River: ($22.35) 8 (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $18.93 and is all-in

      Villain: http://pbrd.co/1521YRW

      I think his cbet size is weak, I would never bet this small on a wet board like this if I had a value hand, so I decided to bluff, I can rep T9, ,78s, 89s, 66, 88, TT, and combo draws. After called, he won't have any flushdraw (since he opened MP, so he should have only strong FD+2 OC hands, so he would bet/3bet with them on the flop I guess), or sets, so I think his range is top pairs, and overpairs. After the turn brings the flush, I planned to bet smaller, because he may x/shove with JJ-AA with a spade, if he doesn't, I can shove the river with a bit bigger size.
      What do you think?
  • 7 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      This is spew. I agree that smaller cbet sizes tend to be weak more often. But this requires an exploitive read - Maybe you know he cbets 90% on the Flop and thus his range is really weak here. Then raising pure air makes more sense.

      Without a spade in my hand, I prefer just folding immediately. And firing 3 streets without further information is just spew. Putting all your hopes into his Flop bet size doesn't even make any sense. and what makes you think he cannot have a flush on the Turn?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dark,

      Preflop: From the sample we have on him he doesn't seem to fold to many 3-bets while in EP/MP so we can consider a 3-bet for value IP.

      Postflop: Why can't he have flush draws because he opened MP. He still has an 18% range there so he can have plenty of flush draws.

      I think that bluffing with little equity in the pot is not the greatest idea unless we have a lot of FE.

      He is also not very nitty when it comes to WTSD (26%) so it will take a lot to fold his stronger hands.

      As played, the turn is good for us and i would still bet like $7 and ship river in hopes that he can find a fold for JJ-AA. But again we should expect to see some flushes especially since we don't block any of the b ig spades.
    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,288
      Thanks guys, It seems both of you agree that it was spew, so I won't make a habit of this :) I take play like this very rarely, but it seemed reasonable while in game. Guess it should be ok with A:sQx? Ah, and forgot to mention, I was 3betting quite a lot at the table, so didn't want to turn this into a bluff preflop.

      But anyway, why should he play with nutFD+2OC like this, calling 4x raise oop? I think most of the time he 3 bets them on the flop. What FD can he bet/call here oop? KQs, KJs maybe? Thats 2 combos. I'd expect 9x FD, like 9s8s, nutFD+2OC, QJs to 3bet on the flop, makes no sence bet/calling with them oop. The other part of his range is overpairs, and Tx, which is a lot more that the 2 non nut FD. I bet smaller on the turn because I wanted more FE on the river if he not x/push on the turn with overpairs with a spade. So after I raised flop, I thought no other option, but firing 3x. What do you think, what hands he can call on the river?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Not sure why I didn't come across the stats earlier on. We can see he has a low Fold to Flop Cbet of 37%, and he seems to have a strong cbetting range of 60%.

      I don't see any reason for him to 3bet you on the Flop. You either have him crushed, or you have air or a lower flush draw which would probably fold to a 3bet. 3betting just isolates him vs the top part of your range, unless he just thinks that you have air the overwhelming majority of the time.

      I would also expect him to check/fold the Turn a lot with his top pairs and overpairs without the spade. So barreling through on the River is not a good idea unless you think he has AsAx which may c/c T c/f R. But that's not such a huge part of his range and he would have a good number of flushes at this point in time.
    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,288
      Originally posted by mbml
      I don't see any reason for him to 3bet you on the Flop. You either have him crushed, or you have air or a lower flush draw which would probably fold to a 3bet. 3betting just isolates him vs the top part of your range, unless he just thinks that you have air the overwhelming majority of the time.
      If he has nut FD+2OC/monster draw, why not? He is flipping vs my range, so it's +EV to 3bet/call, because there is a quite a lot of dead money. I don't get it how can bet/call with these strong draws makes sense, his equity on the flop is the highest, which is dropping significally on the turn. If he is not improving, he has to check/fold. If he does, he will have hard time to make me pay it off, either he has to donk, which makes his hand transparent, or he can check, but then he will often miss value, because I can check behind if an ugly turn comes.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      FD + 2 Overcards is not flipping vs your range. I don't know what he has, but if you are referring to a non-combodraw, I think he should not 3bet the Flop. If he has a straight + flush draw then I think he should play for stacks on the Flop.

      1) AsJs vs combo draws + straights + 2 pairs + sets

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 65.63% 65.63% 0.00% TT-99, 66, T9s, 87s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, 9s8s, 9s7s
      MP3 34.37% 34.37% 0.00% AsJs

      2) QsJs vs the same range

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 53.81% 53.81% 0.00% TT-99, 66, T9s, 87s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, 9s8s, 9s7s
      MP3 46.19% 46.19% 0.00% QsJs

      3) KsQs vs the same range

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 61.09% 60.68% 0.41% TT-99, 66, T9s, 87s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, 9s8s, 9s7s
      MP3 38.91% 38.50% 0.41% KsQs

      You should be able to see that the equity difference is very significant. I think in order to justify him shoving AsJs there, you would need to either be shoving some baby flush draws or you would need to have a ton of bluff raises.
    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,288
      Okay, thanks, his 2OC+FD combos are really in bad shape vs my range in this board. Btw he had QJo, without spade, so probably I thought too much about him :D :facepalm: