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[NL20-NL50] 25shz KJs SB

    • AtrociousNightmare
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $26.90 (107.6 bb)
      Hero (SB): $107.36 (429.4 bb)
      BB: $28.05 (112.2 bb)
      UTG: $39.80 (159.2 bb)
      MP: $27.77 (111.1 bb)
      CO: $21.45 (85.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K J
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.50, BTN folds, Hero raises to $2, BB folds, CO calls $1.50

      Flop: ($4.25) 8 J 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.41, CO calls $2.41

      Turn: ($9.07) 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.29, CO calls $4.29

      River: ($17.65) 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.67, CO raises to $12.75 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.08

      $43.15 pot ($2 rake)
      Final Board: 8 J 8 9 4
      Hero mucked K J and lost (-$21.45 net)
      CO showed 9 8 and won $41.15 ($19.70 net)

      VPIP: 30, PFR: 19, 3B: 0, AF: 1,7, Hands: 27

      Tried to keep sizes on the small side for various reasons that I won't list simply because I realized they are wrong.

      So the question is, with the mistake of my sizes, reaching the river with that type of situation, can I find a fold?

      Here's how I would do it, tell me if something's wrong:
      I'm almost certain at that point that he doesn't raise me with anything worse, but the pot is like, $6.08 for $37.07. [$43.15 with my call]
      This means I'd need only 14% equity.

      BUT I can't find a single hand in his range that is worse really, except for bluffs.

      So I'd say it's a fold.

      What do you think?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I don't think you can bet the Turn for value. Probably check/call and check/decide on the River.

      1) KJ on the Turn

      Equity Win Tie - Equity on the Turn
      MP2 36.98% 32.16% 4.82% KsJs
      MP3 63.02% 58.20% 4.82% TT, 88, AJs, A8s, KJs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo

      With AJ you could have a very thin value bet, depending on whether his actual range is weaker or stronger than my estimates

      2) AJ on the Turn

      Equity Win Tie - Equity on the Turn
      MP2 50.30% 39.79% 10.51% AJs, AJo
      MP3 49.70% 39.20% 10.51% TT, 88, AJs, A8s, KJs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo