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[NL2-NL10] AQo MP 3way

    • HrabriLavek
      Joined: 23.09.2012 Posts: 450
      CO is 17/7 AF 5 over 170 hands
      SB is 26/17 AF 4.5 over 45 hands

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      SB ($13.12)
      BB ($1.35)
      UTG ($1.60)
      UTG+1 ($2.36)
      UTG+2 ($4.68)
      Hero ($4)
      MP2 ($12.61)
      CO ($4)
      BTN ($4.53)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: Q:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.12, fold, CO calls $0.12, fold, SB calls $0.10, fold

      FLOP ($0.40) J:spade: A:heart: K:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, CO folds, SB calls $0.20

      TURN ($0.80) J:spade: A:heart: K:club: Q:diamond:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($0.80) J:spade: A:heart: K:club: Q:diamond: K:heart:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      Hero shows A:diamond: Q:heart: (Pre 73%, Flop 83.8%, Turn 90.9%)SB shows J:heart: Q:club: (Pre 27%, Flop 16.2%, Turn 9.1%)Hero wins $0.76

      I hit top pair with good kicker and I cbet 1/2 pot on this flop because I am also on a gutter for a straight, doubt any of them have AK in their hands and any two pairs would most likely raise me here and I can fold

      SB calls and I presume he was either drawing straight or has something he likes...even though I hit my 2 pairs I check behind because board is very very coordinated and he might aswell be trapping me Ill just see the river and go from there

      since now my two pairs got neutralized I think the best option here is to check behind and go for showdown..doubt he would call me with anything weaker much things that have me beat on this board
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Flop: We could argue for a bet or check here on the Flop, we probably cannot go for 3 streets of value anway.

      Turn: But as played we cannot value bet 2pairs for sure. With sets we could argue for a value bet but we can't be completely sure whether our opponent definitely calls with twopairs on the Turn or not.

      1) AQ - Assuming opponent calls Turn with every single 2 pair combo
      Board: JsAhKcQd
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 42.72% 31.66% 11.05% { AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-AJo, KQo }
      MP3 57.28% 46.23% 11.05% { AQs, AQo }

      2) JJ - Same assumptions
      Board: JsAhKcQd
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 32.36% 28.16% 4.19% { AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-AJo, KQo }
      MP3 67.64% 63.45% 4.19% { JJ }

      If these assumptions are always true, then you can argue for a thin value bet on the Turn. But if I give more conservative assumptions about villain's calling range and discount the weaker two pairs from his range, it would probably be a check.

      River: No way I would bet, we even lose to stuff like KQ and KJ now.