[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - 22: river

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      CO: 24/21
      2.4 af
      31% or co
      74% cbet flop
      3/4 fold after not cbetting
      42% wwsf
      30% wtsd
      334 hands

      SB: 50/2
      45% donkbet
      1/9 fold vs raise after donkbet
      678 hands

      BB: tight reg

      BB: $69.77 (139.5 bb)
      UTG: $16 (32 bb)
      MP: $51.25 (102.5 bb)
      CO: $61.74 (123.5 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $57.25 (114.5 bb)
      SB: $87.37 (174.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 2:spade: 2:heart:
      2 folds, CO raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, SB calls $1, BB calls $0.75

      Flop: ($5) K:spade: A:spade: 2:club: (4 players)
      SB bets $1, BB folds, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $5.50, SB folds, CO calls $4.50

      Turn: ($17) T:heart: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $11, CO calls $11

      River: ($39) A:club: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero

      Its so strange the reg play here. I guess he could play a weak Ax like this on the flop and on the turn. Can he call on the river with weak Ax? His hand looks like an Ax so i guess he wont expect me to bet again with a weak Ax or with a missed draw. I also think he could have AA/KK but mostly A2/AK that just calls first to induce and after my raise calls to dont get isolated against 22.
      So i think that might not be that much value in betting the river despite having FH.
  • 1 reply
    • imfromsweden007
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726

      I do think there's value in betting the river. What beats you here? Wouldn't he raise the fish's donk bet if he had AA/KK/AK? And surely TT folds the flop? You also beat stuff like QJs with the ace on the river. So the only possible thing that has you beat is exactly AT. But if he can have AT he should also be able to have like AQ/AJ and maybe even weaker Ax. And QJ is definitely a possibility, especially of spades. So I would go for value here, around 24$ or so seems fine. Just an amount you don't think he folds Ax against.