[NL20-NL50] #5 99 nl20

    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 2,952
      MP: $21.40 (107 bb)
      Hero (CO): $22 (110 bb)
      BTN: $31.18 (155.9 bb)
      SB: $20.10 (100.5 bb)
      BB: $22 (110 bb)
      UTG: $20.60 (103 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 9:spade: 9:diamond:
      UTG raises to $0.70, MP calls $0.70, Hero calls $0.70, 3 folds

      Flop: ($2.40) 5:club: 5:spade: 2:heart: (3 players)
      UTG checks, MP bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60, UTG folds

      Turn: ($5.60) 4:spade: (2 players)
      MP bets $3.70, Hero calls $3.70

      River: ($13) 2:club: (2 players)
      MP bets $7, Hero calls $7

      Guy was 29/26 2 agr 23% 3b 36 hands
      On the River I need to win this pot ~30% to make this call b/e what do you think about his range? He may have some 66-88?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi

      That would be pretty optimistic to think that he valuebets 88-66. I think the main question is whether he 3barrels AX here.

      We are at the upper end of our range which makes me more inclined to call. The strongest pocketpair we can show up with here is TT since we would squeeze JJ or better. His halfpot betsize looks more lime a value bet from TT and JJ though and i think regs at uNL dont bluff enough with halfpot bet sizes.

      I think 99 is very close. I fold 88 for sure and definitely calling TT.
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 2,952
      yeah you were right he has TT. You are saying that most uNL regs will most likely bluff for PSB or something close to that?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Yeah I think they usually bet much larger if they want to bluff in my opinion. I could be wrong though, as I have not played microstakes for a long time. But I think this statement is true for NL20-NL100 a lot of the time.

      When they put in a half pot bet, you are being offered 25% pot odds to bluff catch right? So in order for their half-pot betting range to be balanced, they would need to have 75% value bets and 25% bluffs. In my opinion I think the actual numbers are more like 85-90% value bets and 10-15% bluffs for uNL regs.

      Since I would assume that the average uNL reg is not balanced in this spot, we exploit them by making nittier folds.