[NL20-NL50] NL50sh AJo

    • jachis
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 745
      PartyGaming - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      MP: $63.13
      CO: $50.00
      BTN: $90.16
      SB: $55.91
      Hero (BB): $80.62
      UTG: $50.00

      SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A:spade: J:club:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.00

      Flop: ($3.00, 2 players) J:spade: 2:spade: K:spade:
      SB bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00

      Turn: ($9.00, 2 players) K:diamond:
      SB bets $8.00, Hero calls $8.00

      River: ($25.00, 2 players) 9:club:
      SB bets $11.87, Hero ?????????

      Villain 26/21 40% steal CO, 60%cbet, 60% turn barrel, 60% river barrel.

      Should I fold river? He cannot barrel Ax FD since I have it. I dont think he would chosse so big sizing if he had a flush. Looks like he has a hand he wants to protect on flop and turn, and on river he goes for value.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I think river is an easy fold for 2 reasons

      1) We block AsX semi bluffs from his range as you correctly pointed out. This reduces the amount of bluffs in his range
      2) We have so many better hands to call the River with, like flushes and KX and full houses. Calling AJ here just means that we are hardly ever folding.

      Unless you have a strong read that he is capable of 3barreling so many worse hands I would give up here. Note that even QT got there now, and QT makes the most sense with his bet sizing on all 3 streets.

      Flop and Turn - Let's pot for max fold equity
      River - Oh I now hit the straight, but board is mono and paired. Let's bet half pot to ensure he always calls with KX.

      Of course I may not necessarily be right about him having QT but there's a good chance he has it.