[NL20-NL50] SH20 - AJ on JT9mono

    • chocular77
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102

      BU: 19/17
      3B on BU: 4%
      Coldcall BU: 9%

      SB: 84/30

      $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      UTG ($31.34) 157bb
      UTG+1 ($22.11) 111bb
      hero (CO) ($23.51) 118bb
      BTN ($20) 100bb
      SB ($4.60) 23bb
      BB ($20) 100bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.30, 6 players) hero is CO A J
      1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, hero raises to $1, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.80

      Flop: J T 9 ($4.20, 4 players)
      SB checks, UTG+1 bets $6, hero goes all-in $22.51, BTN calls $19, SB folds, UTG+1 calls $15.11

      MPs over-donkbet shows a lot of strength, but i thought i still have good equity against 2pair hands so i shipped since he will call with his whole range.

      Final Pot: $65.42
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I think this is an easy fold. You are just crushed by so many straights and flushes. I am being fairly optimistic by adding QJ and KJ with the club, and yet we are nowhere close to being a favourite in this spot.

      I would probably need almost 50% equity in order to justify stacking off here.

      Board: JcTc9c
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 62.84% 62.39% 0.45% { TT-99, KdKc, KhKc, KsKc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, KQs, JTs, T9s, 87s, Kc8c, Qc8c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 6c4c, KQo, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs }
      MP3 37.16% 36.71% 0.45% { AcJs }

      You should also note that he seems to be on the passive side. I don't expect him to overplay off-suit hands too often, and anyway you are not even a favourite vs those hands. Best case scenario is that you are flipping