[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH: expensive draw

    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.05.2007 Posts: 578
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
      Hero:
      $79,77
      BU:
      $22,97
      MP2:
      $29,76
      CO:
      $26,38
      BB:
      $27,87
      MP3:
      $26,79

      0,10/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J:diamond: , 9:diamond:
      3 folds, BU calls $0,25, Hero calls $0,15, BB checks.

      Flop: ($0,75) 2:heart: , 8:club: , T:spade: (3 players)
      Hero bets $0,60, BB folds, BU raises to $1,20, Hero calls $0,60.

      Turn: ($3,15) 6:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $3,50, Hero calls $3,50.

      River: ($10,15) 5:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $18,02 (All-In), Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $28,17

      Here is my megadonk again. He almost never bets.I call turn because i believe i'll stack him when i hit. Can i call such overbets sometimes with these intentions?

      note: BB is a total donk. Coldcalls 3bet with J8. Checks flop behind with tp, checks turn, checks river behind with top2.
  • 2 replies
    • cindy1985
      cindy1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2007 Posts: 358
      If you are 100% certain you can stack him, then your call is EV+:

      pot is ~15BB on the turn, he bets 15BB (I simplify a bit here). He has roughly 78BB behind.

      you have 8 outs to the nuts, ie you have 18% equity against an overpair or trips, even more against a paired hand (you have an overcard). So:

      Evcall = 0.18*[78+30]-0.82*15 = 7.14BB

      HOWEVER, I doubt you will manage to stack him because you would need to overbet the pot to do so (if you were in position it would be another story though).... a more conservative EV calculation would be to consider you would extract a 2/3 pot bet from him on the river. Then your EV is:

      Evcall = 0.18*[30+30]-0.82*15 = -1.5BB

      So even against a bad player I think its a bad idea to call here.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by cindy1985
      If you are 100% certain you can stack him, then your call is EV+:

      pot is ~15BB on the turn, he bets 15BB (I simplify a bit here). He has roughly 78BB behind.

      you have 8 outs to the nuts, ie you have 18% equity against an overpair or trips, even more against a paired hand (you have an overcard). So:

      Evcall = 0.18*[78+30]-0.82*15 = 7.14BB

      HOWEVER, I doubt you will manage to stack him because you would need to overbet the pot to do so (if you were in position it would be another story though).... a more conservative EV calculation would be to consider you would extract a 2/3 pot bet from him on the river. Then your EV is:

      Evcall = 0.18*[30+30]-0.82*15 = -1.5BB

      So even against a bad player I think its a bad idea to call here.
      Ty cindy for explaining why folding turn is better than chasing oesd.
      You´re also oop, so villain could check back his obe pair hand, but as he bet a little more than pot on the turn, then he either has nuts or nothing.
      I also like fold here.