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[NL20-NL50] NL50 AJ squeezed IP

    • Pumper247
      Joined: 12.11.2012 Posts: 500
      iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $20.25
      UTG: $64.13
      MP: $62.88
      CO: $54.75
      Hero (BTN): $50.00
      SB: $50.75

      SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has J:spade: A:diamond:

      UTG raises to $1.50, MP calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, Hero raises to $7.00, fold, fold, UTG calls $5.50, fold, fold

      Flop: ($17.75, 2 players) A:club: 7:spade: 8:heart:
      UTG checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($17.75, 2 players) 2:club:
      UTG bets $8.87, Hero calls $8.87

      River: ($35.49, 2 players) Q:heart:
      UTG bets $15.50, Hero calls $15.50

      I`ve 15 hands on UTG. He seems like a regular with 27/22.
      Preflop i sqz w/ blockers. I think this i a profitable spot , but i could make it $7,5-8.
      Flop i checkback for potcontrol/bluffinduce, plus i dont have a valuebet i think.
      Turn Ive to call his bet.
      River he bets really small , it looks like he wants to get a call from my weakrange. He would bet bigger if he wants a fold.
      So i guess River is a fold.

      We need 23% for a call. I gave him only one set and overplayed KQs and its not a call.

      Board: 8:heart: 7:spade: A:club:  2:club:  Q:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    21.43%  21.43%   0.00% { AdJs }
      MP3    78.57%  78.57%   0.00% { 88, AQs+, KQs, AQo }
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795

      You are putting him on 0 bluffs which is not the case. Of course if we knew he never has a bluff, this would be closer to a fold.

      1) He can turn 99 into a bluff sometimes, or JT/KQ etc

      2) He may valuebet a worse Ace. His small sizing could be more indicative of a AXs hand going for thin value vs KK/JJ.

      Don't see how we can ever fold here. Easy call. We are pretty much at the top of our Flop checking back range too (we probably cbet AQ and AK), which makes this a snap call.