[NL2-NL10] QQ, river ?

    • staselu
      staselu
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2008 Posts: 532
      IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2114435
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $9.70
      BTN: $10.30 32/20 wts 24 coldcall 27 fold to cbet 80%(7 samples) agfactor 11.0 hands 78
      SB: $10.35 79/15 agfactor 2.1 wts 28 cold call 28 hands 465
      BB: $12.78
      Hero (UTG): $13.82

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with Q :heart: Q :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.00) J :diamond: J :club: 3 :diamond: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, SB folds

      Turn: ($2.50) T :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $1.87, Hero calls $1.87

      River: ($6.24) T :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $4.68, Hero calls $4.68

      turn: when he calls flop I think his range is Jx, flush draws, 44-TT, I think there is no sens to bet turn, because he will fold worst hands like 44-99, and will raise Jx, flush, so If I check I will lose less vs better hands, and extract maximum from worst.

      river: I don't think he bets river with pocket pairs, looks like flush , Jx, Tx or bluff. I decided to call based on his high aggressiveness.

      question: : his fold to cbet stat on the flop is 86% (7 samples) 78 hands. Can I rely on this stats with such sample size ? If I can rely on this stats-----> if he does not fold to a flop cbet , he has a strong hands, so it is a easy fold on the river

      what is the minimum sample size of the fold to cbet stat to rely on it ??? :f_confused:
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Staselu,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: The sample for fold to cbet isn't huge but it does tell us that he knows how to fold.

      Now this is a paired board so there will still be quite a few hands that can call (Draws, pairs, even overcards). However, given that bad turn card we can even consider ck/folding rather than ck/calling versus someone that's not too aggro and has folded before.

      We can expect him to check back worse pairs and only bet Jx, flushes and maybe some draws.
    • staselu
      staselu
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2008 Posts: 532
      his aggression factor on flop 5.0 turn inf river inf, based on these stats can we expect him to bluff or even turn his pocket pairs into bluff ?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by staselu
      his aggression factor on flop 5.0 turn inf river inf, based on these stats can we expect him to bluff or even turn his pocket pairs into bluff ?
      Don't look at just his aggression factor. Because he has folded so much so far (at least to cbets) that means that he rarely called.

      And aggression factor is Aggression divided by calls.

      So look at aggression frequency as well and how big of a sample these actually are (it should show in parentheses next to the numbers). Over such a small sample aggression frequency may not be reliable.

      Now, after you look at this consider what he can bluff with that called the flop. Would he bluff 88? Would he call the flop with nothing to bluff turn/river?