[NL20-NL50] SH20 - QQ vs donkbet

    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      SB: 42/15
      BB:

      $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem
      iPoker
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      hero (UTG) ($20) 100bb
      CO ($23.15) 116bb
      BTN ($7) 35bb
      SB ($13.79) 69bb
      BB ($32.36) 162bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.30, 5 players) hero is UTG Q Q
      hero raises to $0.70, 2 folds, SB calls $0.60, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: 2 5 3 ($2.10, 3 players)
      SB checks, BB bets $1.40, hero calls $1.40, SB folds

      I think his range mostly looks like this:
      JJ-22,65s,54s,AcQc,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,QcJc,JcTc,Tc9c,9c8c,8c7c,7c6c
      Maybe less flushdraws
      I can't call a 3B so i just called to keep his weaker pairs in.

      Turn: 3 ($4.90, 2 players)
      BB bets $2.60, hero calls $2.60

      I expect him to barrel his entire range again.

      River: 7 ($10.10, 2 players)
      BB bets $6.20, hero calls $6.20

      River was hard because he should mostly put me on Overpairs as well
      and i don't know if he would still bluff his busted draws or bet his overpairs again.
      BB seems agressive so far so i called.

      Final Pot: $22.50
  • 9 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Hey Chocular77,

      Preflop is fine.

      I'm not sure if the fact that you "can't call a 3bet" is that relevant. If you think villain will call with worse and mostly raise better hands, raising flop is good.

      The turn 3 is probably an ok card, since it reduces villains value combos. Turn aggression is high so far, I'd call.

      River is sort of awkward for the reasons you mentioned. His river aggression frequency is high enough that I'd probably still call, but not be too happy about it.
    • x3ndeDx
      x3ndeDx
      Silver
      Joined: 22.08.2012 Posts: 1,398
      what about shove the river?


      he will not fold any overpair and may even consider we are with a busted FD and try to bluff catch us with much worse than our overpair...
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Originally posted by x3ndeDx
      he will not fold any overpair and may even consider we are with a busted FD and try to bluff catch us with much worse than our overpair...
      It's debatable whether hand is even strong enough to call river, I certainly wouldn't shove for value.

      In general the concept of merging river range just isn't relevant to these stakes, but useful at higher stakes.
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      I'm not sure if the fact that you "can't call a 3bet" is that relevant. If you think villain will call with worse and mostly raise better hands, raising flop is good.
      While playing i thought that he will fold almost all weaker pairs and ship his sets. (Maybe call JJ)
      Didn't think too much about fdraws since i expected while playing that he would maybe check them,
      but he is really aggressive enough that he could donk them aswell.

      If i raise and he just calls with his fdraws and raises his sets my equity looks like this:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 34.19% 33.19% 1.00% JJ, 44, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c
      MP3 65.81% 64.81% 1.00% QhQs

      And if he is cabable of donking fdraws he maybe 3b fdraws+overcards because he has good equity. So his 3B range maybe looks like this:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 68.22% 66.95% 1.27% 55, 33-22, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c
      MP3 31.78% 30.51% 1.27% QhQs

      Looking at my equity raise/fold would be fine i guess.

      While playing i just couldn't stand the idea of folding to a 3B against something like 87s.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      It's generally not that likely players 3bet draws at these stakes. It does happen, but more likely players will flat draws + marginal hands and 3bet 2pair+sets etc.

      Another thing to take into consideration is that if you take an aggressive line opponent my not realise his equity if he ends up folding something like a flush-draw or pair on the turn instead of seeing all 5 cards.
    • x3ndeDx
      x3ndeDx
      Silver
      Joined: 22.08.2012 Posts: 1,398
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      Originally posted by x3ndeDx
      he will not fold any overpair and may even consider we are with a busted FD and try to bluff catch us with much worse than our overpair...
      It's debatable whether hand is even strong enough to call river, I certainly wouldn't shove for value.

      In general the concept of merging river range just isn't relevant to these stakes, but useful at higher stakes.

      why not? you think he will fold everything that we beat?

      I think he will call with at least any overpair... he will fold some hands like Ax and will also call with sets... but only 3 sets get it... and 1 quad...

      but handreading since the flop, his range has a lot of overpairs, Ax hands(playing for GS), FD... if we let him betting, we still extract value from all those hands, but here on river, if we call, we extract value for all those hands, and we if raise, we extract the same for this hands, extract more from overpairs and lose more to sets... I think the ratio sets/overpairs is good enough to shove...
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Originally posted by x3ndeDx
      why not? you think he will fold everything that we beat?
      No, I think his calling range will consist of better hands over 50% of the time making a value bet a losing proposition.

      If I'm stopping to think whether hero should call river with 27% pot-odds it's clearly not a value shove in my mind.

      There are 3 problems.
      1) Villain may not 3barrel an overpair on this board when not much worse is calling.
      2) It's not just sets vs overpairs, villain has things like A4s/A4o/46s/3x which can easily three barrel.
      3)Villain may get away from his overpairs in which case shoving for value is terrible.
    • x3ndeDx
      x3ndeDx
      Silver
      Joined: 22.08.2012 Posts: 1,398
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      Originally posted by x3ndeDx
      why not? you think he will fold everything that we beat?
      No, I think his calling range will consist of better hands over 50% of the time making a value bet a losing proposition.

      If I'm stopping to think whether hero should call river with 27% pot-odds it's clearly not a value shove in my mind.

      There are 3 problems.
      1) Villain may not 3barrel an overpair on this board when not much worse is calling.
      2) It's not just sets vs overpairs, villain has things like A4s/A4o/46s/3x which can easily three barrel.
      3)Villain may get away from his overpairs in which case shoving for value is terrible.
      ok...thx =] but I still think he will call us with any overpair, he is a donkey... against something better, I should really just call this river...
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Originally posted by x3ndeDx
      ok...thx =] but I still think he will call us with any overpair, he is a donkey... against something better, I should really just call this river...
      Yup, I just give my opinion based on experience. That doesn't mean I'm always 100% right, and it doesn't mean other regulars will always agree with the lines I suggest.