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[NL2-NL10] NL10 - KK - CO vs UTG [13.02.21]

    • DavidDorky
      Joined: 18.07.2008 Posts: 5,537
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG ($12.39) 124bb
      UTG+1 ($7.86) 79bb
      DavidDorky (CO) ($10.36) 104bb
      BTN ($10) 100bb
      SB ($2.48) 25bb
      BB ($12.26) 123bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) DavidDorky is CO K:diamond: K:spade:
      UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, DavidDorky raises to $1, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.70

      Flop: 8:club: J:spade: 2:spade: ($2.15, 2 players)
      UTG bets $1.30, DavidDorky calls $1.30

      Turn: 10:club: ($4.75, 2 players)
      UTG bets $4.50, DavidDorky???

      UTG: 38/8/3.0 - 39h

      What is the best turn move and why?

      Villains turn range IMO:
      MP3 80.86% 78.23% 2.63% KK+, JJ-TT, 88, AJs
      CO 19.14% 16.51% 2.63% KdKs

      That's approximately ok?
  • 3 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      His range in the utg could be wider than you think. He could have KQ QJ TK kind of Broadway hands.

      With that bigger range I think you can continue profitably. Since the turn is drawy I think you can raise all in for value.
    • DavidDorky
      Joined: 18.07.2008 Posts: 5,537
      KQ, KT?! And he will lead on this flop?

      I don't know... :)
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      No way I'm ever folding. Question is whether we should jam or call. I think our playability is bad on many rivers and the pot is already so huge. I'm just jamming here, mostly for protection.

      I'm also going to heavily discount sets from his range. I see absolutely no reason for people to lead top set here, and also with 88 usually he wants to c/c to induce bluffs from AK, or just c/r as opposed to leading. Unless you have shown to check back very often on such flops and he doesn't want to give u the chance to pot control (I'm sure that isn't the case here since you didn't mention it in your first post).

      I'm not sure why you are giving him AA here as well. He should be 4betting AA a lot of the time. And you didn't give him QQ, which IMO is much likelier than AA (but I think both hands are rarely in his range).

      Turn Equity
      Board: Js2s8cTc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 64.55% 64.55% 0.00% { KdKs }
      MP3 35.45% 35.45% 0.00% { AhAc, QhQc, JhJc, 8h8c, AJs, KJs, AsQs, KsQs, AsTs }

      I added a few weirdly played combos of overpairs and sets but you should be able to see that we are very far ahead. And you also need to consider the dead money in the pot so we probably need like 40% equity to stack off here I think.