[NL2-NL10] KQs Skwuz

    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,176
      ***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Prima)
      €10.00 EUR NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, February 22, 04:22:40 ET 2013
      Table Trafalgar (Real Money)
      Seat 4 is the button
      Seat 2: Player2 ( €12.75 EUR ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 3.7, Hands: 681
      Seat 3: Player3 ( €15.74 EUR ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 9, AF: 3.1, Hands: 1466
      Seat 4: Player4 ( €1.70 EUR ) - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 18, AF: 0.0, Hands: 34
      Seat 5: Player5 ( €13.46 EUR ) - VPIP: 33, PFR: 15, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 168
      Seat 6: Hero ( €14.21 EUR ) - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 3.1, Hands: 98841


      Prima, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $12.75 (127.5 bb)
      CO: $15.74 (157.4 bb)
      BTN: $1.70 (17 bb)
      SB: $13.46 (134.6 bb)
      Hero (BB): $14.21 (142.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q K
      MP raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.30, MP calls $1, CO folds

      Flop: ($2.95) 7 6 K (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.90, MP calls $1.90

      Turn: ($6.75) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.60, MP calls $3.60

      River: ($13.95) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.41 and is all-in, MP calls $5.95 and is all-in


      Pfr is tagy: EPrfi: 17 Ft3bet: 56 WTSD: 28 W$SD: 41

      CO is also pretty TAG: FT3bet: 38 (think this might be wrong to squeeze him now?)

      FLOP: I think I have the best hand here alot of the time. AK,KK+ 4bets pre. I think even more so this is a squeeze. So i think his range will be mostly PPs..


      TURN+RIVER: I think he calls flop with 99-QQ, and can again call the turn with backdoor FD? I jam the river to get called by these hands wtsd:28 w$sd:41

      long info because of Bogdans Hand analysis videos :D :D so basically this was my thought process :)
  • 8 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      Preflop I think squeezing is fine here.
      We have blockers against EP's top range, plus we can get called by worse from CO.

      On the flop cbetting is good.

      I think we can bet again on the turn here but I would rather bet ~$3 here.
      I think he is capable of calling with JJ/TT again, plus we don't really want into check/call mode, also check/fold looks weak.

      As played, i don't really think he calls here with worse, so I would rather check/fold the river.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,176
      [quote]Originally posted by kymupa
      Hello,

      Preflop I think squeezing is fine here.
      We have blockers against EP's top range, plus we can get called by worse from CO.

      On the flop cbetting is good.

      Originally posted by kymupa
      I think we can bet again on the turn here but I would rather bet ~$3 here.
      bet smaller to encourage weaker hands to call?

      Originally posted by kymupa
      I think he is capable of calling with JJ/TT again, plus we don't really want into check/call mode, also check/fold looks weak.
      why do you think he calls again? because of possible BDFD?


      Originally posted by kymupa
      As played, i don't really think he calls here with worse, so I would rather check/fold the river.
      What range do you think he calls the river with?

      And dont you think he calls the river with hands that call flop+turn when hes getting 3/1 odds?

      Or do you think with such stats, he knows we are never betting river with anything lower than Kx?

      Sorry for all the questions :D And thank you for your last post. But I need to change my thought process to understand river is x/f.
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,176
      Not sure if I pressed the button :)
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hey,

      You definitely don't need to be sorry for the questions - if there is something that is not clear the right thing to do is just to ask.

      Basically, I think betting on the smaller side on the turn will give him better price to call with his PPs and we aren't going to isolate ourselves against better.

      Once we get to the river, unless we know he is a big station, we should assume that he isn't going to call us down with TT for example.
      Otherwise, we are likely to spew our money to him.

      Overall, with our hand on this specific board texture, it would be hard to take more than two streets of value without knowing that he is a huge fish.
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,176
      hey thanks! yeah i just don't want to come across rude :) you give me answers then i go picking at them :p but i'm just trying to squeeze more knowledge out of you ;)

      last question :D Do you think with his SD stats he can still call with TT-QQ?

      To me, i think if he calls flop and trurn, he can sigh call river as his w$sd is ~40%

      and thanks again :D
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Well, you got a point here.

      The way I see it - this is quite a specific situation and he doesn't look so much out of line here in my opinion, so I would prefer to take the safe line and check, rather than shove and hope he calls those where he could easily fold them against four streets of aggression.

      I think he is calling them only with some dynamics between them, but it isn't said about any.
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,176
      yeah, not really any dynamics between us. well i don't feel like there is anyway :D

      That was how I interpreted the 40% w$sd. I presume by your response this is somewhat correct thinking, but is more situation dependent?
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Yeah, basically you are interpreting his stats well, but I think in this situation he isn't really going to call down with worse.
      I would consider shoving here if he has very low W$SD - like 15-20% which would mean that he goes to showdown with any made hand.