Cash Result Graph

    • Spikelema
      Spikelema
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 55
      I was just wondering if this is a normal chart for a sample size of 1,000 hands.

      I also want to know the importance of keeping All-In EV up above 0. Does it imply that my decisions are on average correct and the hands I lost were "unlucky"?

  • 10 replies
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by Spikelema
      I was just wondering if this is a normal chart for a sample size of 1,000 hands.

      No such thing as a normal chart for 1000 hands. It is just too small a sample.
      You can and will have chunks of 1000 hands where your winrate is 10x worse than usual, and 10x better, anything inbetween and even outside this sometimes.

      Keep playing and you'll see that 1000 hands is NOTHING.
    • Spikelema
      Spikelema
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 55
      Thanks,

      Just now looking for information about the "All-In EV" line, as I am down 150bb but my EV line is up about 40.
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Generally this is an indication that you are getting unlucky in terms of equity whilst all in. Eg. when all in AA vs KK your equity is 81% of the pot. If the pot is 200bb, your equity share is 162bb. Winning the pot will put you 38bb above EV while losing it will put you 162bb below EV.

      Bear in mind this is only one measure of luck, and not a very accurate one at that. If you get AA vs KK this in itself is quite lucky for you and unlucky for your opponent. Then losing the hand is "unlucky" for you even though the situation could and in the long run WILL occur on the other side.

      Also say you (example hand of mine from today) barrel AQ pot size bet on Q25 pot size bet on turn 9 and on river A and call your opponents all in to find that the genius has 43, the graph will show this as a -EV decision, when clearly it is a +EV play against your opponents range, and +EV against their specific hand on the flop and turn.

      Conversely say that for some reason you call a 99bb raise preflop with 22, while your very tight opponent has AA. Flop comes 29J and you go all in for your last bb each. This will be recorded as a +EV all in, when really it is not at all a +EV play. PokerTracker/HM2 can only record the action when the last cent goes in, and therefore is not accurate for anything other than preflop all ins. If you lost this hand you would come up as well below EV, even though you made a hugely -EV decision preflop.

      On top of this it doesn't do multiway pots accurately either.

      So don't worry too much about EV. Personally I am $200 below EV from mainly NL10 but there's nothing I can do about it so I try not to dwell on it.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Good description, Metza.

      Just because you CAN calculate something doesn't mean you should.

      I don't show my EV line any more.

      On your graph Spikelema the lines you want to show are:
        The green line (net won) -- you have this one already
        Non showdown winnings
        Showdown winnings

      The last two give an indication of several aspects of your play that may help you correct mistakes.

      Even so, a sample size of 1000 is not enough to be making decisions on.

      Have a good weekend...
      --VS
    • liguolong
      liguolong
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      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 731
      Doesn't it make more sense to show you EV line and at least subtract the difference between winning and EV from the showdown winning?
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Originally posted by liguolong
      Doesn't it make more sense to show you EV line and at least subtract the difference between winning and EV from the showdown winning?
      Well, I don't think that the EV line really makes any sense at all, unless you filter out the hands where you weren't all-in.

      Also, as metza points out, even then the data it presents is often misleading.

      It is hard enough to play "a game of incomplete information".
      Now we are introducing information that may or may not be accurate, and may or may not be meaningful.

      So I just ignore it altogether.

      There are lots of people who swear by it though, so it's one of those things where you have to make up your own mind.

      Best of luck...
      --VS
    • elchipriota
      elchipriota
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      As people stated above 1k hands = too small.


      50K will be considered the minimum respectable sample imo.



      When your running above Ev (Like in your case) it means in an all in situation either preflop or post flop you put your money in good (being the favorite) but you lost.

      That line indicates what it "could have been". Theoretically at some point you will put ur money in when bad (ie KK vs villains AA) and win and that will bring your EV line closer to your green line.
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
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      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Originally posted by elchipriota
      When your running above Ev (Like in your case) it means in an all in situation either preflop or post flop you put your money in good
      Sorry just to be clear. He is running under EV right? EV confuses me a lot but since the EV line is higher he is running under EV I always thought?

      RasTweet
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by RasTweet
      Originally posted by elchipriota
      When your running above Ev (Like in your case) it means in an all in situation either preflop or post flop you put your money in good
      Sorry just to be clear. He is running under EV right? EV confuses me a lot but since the EV line is higher he is running under EV I always thought?

      RasTweet
      Yeah this is correct I think he just made a typo since he is describing running under EV.
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
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      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Originally posted by metza
      Originally posted by RasTweet
      Originally posted by elchipriota
      When your running above Ev (Like in your case) it means in an all in situation either preflop or post flop you put your money in good
      Sorry just to be clear. He is running under EV right? EV confuses me a lot but since the EV line is higher he is running under EV I always thought?

      RasTweet
      Yeah this is correct I think he just made a typo since he is describing running under EV.
      (whew) I thought I was being a huge fish there!