[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH AJo in BB vs 2

    • mihninho
      mihninho
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.04.2009 Posts: 648
      PartyGaming - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: $55.14
      Hero (BB): $53.99
      UTG: $48.49
      MP: $34.45
      CO: $50.00
      BTN: $15.91

      SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has J:heart: A:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, Hero calls $1.00

      Flop: ($4.50, 3 players) Q:diamond: 5:heart: J:spade:
      SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

      Turn: ($4.50, 3 players) 7:heart:
      SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50, fold

      River: ($9.50, 2 players) J:club:
      SB bets $5.00, Hero raises to $12.00, SB raises to $51.14 and is all-in, Hero calls $37.99 and is all-in

      Hello ok so this is a very interesting hand after you see the results :) .Yeah nevermind so BTN i have only 40 hands with him bu he seems very aggresive VPIP 47 PFR 30 cbet flop 67% AF flop 4 AF turn 2 AF river 2 WTSD 30 he is my main target , SB is after 2000 hands VPIP 21 PFR 16 3bet from blinds 4% his AF is 5 on flop 3 on turn 2 on river and WTSD 20.I think pf it's not a big mistake i want my fish on the pot.Ok so on the flop now looking i think i should barrel because SB will be very honest on this spot and i think i have a medium hand with my second pair top kicker vs the fish.As played on the turn i put SB on a medium pair or even an weaker J or even TT.But now on the river my thought process changed and i wanted to put my SB villain on a Q which he may have slowplayed on the flop.But my call is very bad overall ( my raise i don't think it is because i think all Qs will call and monsters will shove).
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi,

      River decision is simple
      1) Does he value bet worse hands?
      2) Does he ever bluff?

      I think 2 is unlikely, so ask yourself if 1 is true. if opponent is fishy, we can expect him to push KJ J9 J8 some of the time. Count your equity and pot odds, then decide if you have enough to call it off.

      Equity
      Board: Qd5hJs7hJc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 42.86% 42.86% 0.00% { 77, 55, KJs, QJs, J9s-J8s, KJo, QJo, J9o-J8o }
      MP3 57.14% 57.14% 0.00% { AdJh }

      I may be a little optimistic here, but 57% makes this a snap call

      Pot odds: 38/109.50 = 34.7%

      Even if I'm more conservative with my estimates, I think trips with top kicker seems way too strong to fold here.

      Conservative
      Board: Qd5hJs7hJc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 65.63% 56.25% 9.38% { 77, 55, AJs, KJs, QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo }
      MP3 34.38% 25.00% 9.38% { AdJh }

      We have a break-even call here.