[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH AKs vs reg

    • mihninho
      mihninho
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.04.2009 Posts: 648
      PartyGaming - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      CO: $50.00
      BTN: $97.69
      SB: $16.25
      BB: $11.25
      Hero (UTG): $62.21

      SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has A:heart: K:heart:

      Hero raises to $1.50, fold, BTN calls $1.50, fold, fold

      Flop: ($3.75, 2 players) 8:heart: 8:club: 5:heart:
      Hero bets $3.00, BTN raises to $6.50, Hero calls $3.50

      Turn: ($16.75, 2 players) 5:spade:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $9.50, fold

      BTN wins $15.92

      Hello villain looks like that in 16k hands VPIP 22 PFR 16 fold to cbet 60% and raise to flop cbet 9.On the flop with a FD a bet anytime anywhere and my bet will be big after he raises me he surely has a hand because of his low raise to cbet (not low normal i guess).My odds on the flop is 4 to 1 so i decided to call his min raise but now on the turn i think i'm done with the hand.
  • 6 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Hi,

      Dont bet so large on the Flop. 2.50 is enough.

      As played, call once and give up.
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      Anything hugely wrong with going with the hand on the flop?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Yes, going all-in will be a huge mistake.

      Look at villain's stats - He has a really low flop raise of 9%, and a very high fold to F cbet of 60%. You can be very sure that he's not messing around. In fact I think we should even just bet/fold, now that I look at his stats again.

      He is definitely only raising here with combodraws, sets and trips. I would definitely bet/fold a smaller flush draw but with AKs it is not so clear.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 8h8c5h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 33.25% 33.15% 0.10% { AhKh }
      MP3 66.75% 66.65% 0.10% { A8s, T8s, 98s, 87s, 9h7h, 7h6h }

      You can see that our equity is already pretty low at 33%. Not to mention that we can have reverse implied odds, or maybe he is raising 55 and 88 some % of the time and we are drawing completely dead.

      If our equity was closer to 40% then I wouldn't mind a call so much.

      Thanks.
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      Thanks mbml,

      More questions. Whats a low, medium and high flop x/r %? And what does each contain? What % flop x/r would you want to see to go with this hand on the flop?
    • mihninho
      mihninho
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.04.2009 Posts: 648
      I ll do a 3bet here if he has something like >17 %, but will wait for mbml.High in my standard is >20% i think with that i'll shove TPGK
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      10-15% is what a normal TAG has,
      <10% is what a nit or passive player has
      16-20% is for LAG players
      >20% is for hyper aggro players

      I still don't think shoving this Flop is ever good. Just flat cos we are still ahead of worse draws with AK high and hope he gives up on the River.

      In order to justify stacking off here, either the SPR needs to be shallower (like in 3b pots or vs midstacker), ranges need to be really wide (like in late positions), or board should at least have a ton of worse combo draws that can ship over your flop 3bet.