[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - J9: move

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      27/20
      3 af
      12% donkbet flop
      66% fold vs cbet flop (73% oop)
      12% c/r flop
      39% wwsf
      28% wtsd
      16k hands

      Read: DK BB vs utg .. A73ss5T donkbet 2/3, 55%, 55% /F to shove


      CO: $129.48 (259 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $74.59 (149.2 bb)
      SB: $57.18 (114.4 bb)
      BB: $49.36 (98.7 bb)
      UTG: $56.50 (113 bb)
      MP: $62.42 (124.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9:club: J:heart:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB calls $1, BB folds

      Flop: ($3) 7:spade: 6:heart: T:club: (2 players)
      SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

      Turn: ($6) 3:spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $3, Hero calls $3

      River: ($12) T:heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $8.50, Hero raises ?

      The stats tell me that for sure he will donkbet value hands, but he still have a decent c/r range, so i expect him to play play sets and two pairs c/raising, i already saw him donking + bet +bet/fold, and my hand can improve to nuts. Do you think i have a spot for a big move?
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Heya,

      Your hand is right on the line in my view between a raise and a call. If you went with the call and have the read he donks to fold like this quite often then yes, it is a spot where you can shove as a bluff. The sizing he lead is not perfectly consistent though, so he bet bigger on flop last time but he could just have some buttons set up that way. You are basically using your note more or less but keep in mind positions and that he might be tilted.
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      Do you think i need to shove to make him fold?
      What about a small raise?
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Do you have the same folding equity against someone like him? The risk/reward of shoving is worse ofc but you would play a value hand this way and the only spot where fish fold quite a bit is when playing for stacks/against shoves. They don't fold if they can still play when they are wrong.

      As I mentioned, YOU made that read so it's up to you to decide if you can do this. It's a read based play which makes sense ofc.

      Not to diminish the pros of hand discussions but when you have your read, you cannot ask others if that works. Do you trust your read enough to act on it? That's the only question that matters here really. We can talk about how you actually got that read maybe and how to give them more credibility but nobody else here saw how you obtained that read so we cannot say the read based play.

      Like I said in my first post, your hand is between a raise and a call on the flop since it's playability is not that good and I would take the raise line more often. You know you can raise river bets to win the pot so you don't need to risk money on the flop not knowing what is his reaction.