[NL2-NL10] JJ turn fold

    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      Prima, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $10.69 (106.9 bb)
      BB: $10 (100 bb)
      UTG: $15.68 (156.8 bb)
      MP: $10 (100 bb)
      Hero (CO): $16.28 (162.8 bb)
      BTN: $10 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.70, SB calls $0.70

      Flop: ($3) 4 5 7 (3 players)
      SB checks, BB bets $2, Hero calls $2, SB folds

      Turn: ($7) 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $4.65, Hero folds

      few hands on villain. think he was tag looking 22/20

      Bet sizing looks for value, not 1/2 potting AK
  • 14 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi GxTwo,

      Preflop: Given the positions we can 4-bet for value in spots like this.

      Postflop: As played I agree with you that his line (cbet into 2 ppl and barrel turn) is rarely a bluff especially with the lack of draws and blank turn card.
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi GxTwo,

      Preflop: Given the positions we can 4-bet for value in spots like this.
      Thanks Bogdan :) I agree, perhaps with read, but vs an unknown? I cant see him call/shipping with anything weaker than QQ+ and perhaps AK gets it in, even then weve got like 38%?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      [quote]Originally posted by gxtwo
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi GxTwo,

      Preflop: Given the positions we can 4-bet for value in spots like this.
      Thanks Bogdan :) I agree, perhaps with read, but vs an unknown? I cant see him call/shipping with anything weaker than QQ+ and perhaps AK gets it in, even then weve got like 38%?[/quote

      Don't forget that the value of the 4-bet is not only from you going broke with him but also collecting the dead money (when both fold). That's the real value in the 4-bet and when he shoves we normally have enough equity to be at least break even.
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      How do we calculate this? Here's my thoughts :)

      So if we 4bet to $2.20 he would need to fold ~54% of the time to break even.

      Like would we say he 3bets TT+, AK (25pps, 16AK) 41 combos, and folds JJ 1, TT 6, and AKo 12, 19 combos.

      19/41 = 46%

      Not really sure where to go from here? :D or if should even be here in the first place :) please let me know if I was on the correct track Bogdan :)
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by gxtwo
      How do we calculate this? Here's my thoughts :)

      So if we 4bet to $2.20 he would need to fold ~54% of the time to break even.

      Like would we say he 3bets TT+, AK (25pps, 16AK) 41 combos, and folds JJ 1, TT 6, and AKo 12, 19 combos.

      19/41 = 46%

      Not really sure where to go from here? :D or if should even be here in the first place :) please let me know if I was on the correct track Bogdan :)
      Hi GxTwo.

      The best way to calculate your FE is to assume 0 FE to begin with and then go from there.

      You calculate how much you stand to win when called (A) vs how much you stand to lose if called (B). And then divide the absolute value of the difference (A-B) by [(A-B)+pot size we take down if he folds] and that's our FE required.

      So take a shot at that (and hopefully it made sense).
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      shouldn't (A) be how much we win when he folds? or have i totally missed something :D
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      I took a shot and ended up with 47%

      (A)= 13
      (B)= -19

      13-(-19)= 32

      32/ (32+35) = 0.47%

      Or is this completely wrong haha? :f_biggrin:
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      Think I don't that last one wrong haha. Done it differernt and got .44444444?

      A=47
      B=19

      (A-B) = 28

      28/ (28+35) = 28/ 63 = 0.44%
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
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      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      Bump for my awful math :-D
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Sorry, my formula was for spots where we go all in (so lets say you shove there or we calculate FE required if he were to push on us).

      For our hand, if we 4-bet/fold the math is simple.

      We risk 2.2 to win 1.55 which means we need him folding 59% of the time.

      And then when he ships it's a matter of pot odds. What do we get versus what we have.
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Sorry, my formula was for spots where we go all in (so lets say you shove there or we calculate FE required if he were to push on us).

      For our hand, if we 4-bet/fold the math is simple.

      We risk 2.2 to win 1.55 which means we need him folding 59% of the time.

      And then when he ships it's a matter of pot odds. What do we get versus what we have.
      Do we still include our 30c into our 4bet, i thought it was just dead money now (we risk €1.90)?

      if he shoves, I presume it would be pot odds Vs our equity?

      €10+€2.20+€0.30 = €12.50

      €7.80/ (€7.80 + €12.50) = €7.80/€20.30 = 38%

      Which is pretty much our equity :D

      so we can ship for 0ev or we can fold and lose €2.20?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by gxtwo
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Sorry, my formula was for spots where we go all in (so lets say you shove there or we calculate FE required if he were to push on us).

      For our hand, if we 4-bet/fold the math is simple.

      We risk 2.2 to win 1.55 which means we need him folding 59% of the time.

      And then when he ships it's a matter of pot odds. What do we get versus what we have.
      Do we still include our 30c into our 4bet, i thought it was just dead money now (we risk €1.90)?

      if he shoves, I presume it would be pot odds Vs our equity?

      €10+€2.20+€0.30 = €12.50

      €7.80/ (€7.80 + €12.50) = €7.80/€20.30 = 38%

      Which is pretty much our equity :D

      so we can ship for 0ev or we can fold and lose €2.20?
      In this case you are right. You only count what we put in extra. If we were to cold 4-bet then we can count the 2.2.

      As far as the pot odds goes that's correct. We get roughly 38% (before rake) so depending on what we think his range is we can call or fold.
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
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      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      Thank you Bogdan! :D

      sorry to bring this thread back up again :facepalm: but i have another question.

      How do we estimate how much fold equity we have here?

      Would it be: combos he 3bet folds/ total 3bet combos?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by gxtwo
      Thank you Bogdan! :D

      sorry to bring this thread back up again :facepalm: but i have another question.

      How do we estimate how much fold equity we have here?

      Would it be: combos he 3bet folds/ total 3bet combos?
      Yes, FE would be how often we think he folds.

      So for example if we think he has a 6% 3-bet range but only continues with 2% we have 66% FE because he folds 4/6.