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[NL2-NL10] KQo sb vs bb

    • staselu
      Joined: 02.01.2008 Posts: 532
      IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2116622
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $10.00
      CO: $12.02
      BTN: $10.14
      Hero (SB): $11.85
      BB: $10.00

      31/28 fold BB to steal 68% vs steal 3bet 19% 3bet vs sb 23% (85 samples) 4bet range 2.4% fold to 4bet 6% (16 samples) agfactor 3.8 wts 25 hands 2.6k

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with Q :spade: K :heart:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB raises to $0.90, Hero raises to $2.10, BB calls $1.20

      Flop: ($4.20) 2 :spade: 3 :spade: 3 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.10, BB calls $2.10

      Turn: ($8.40) 8 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $4.20, Hero folds

      preflop:BB 3bets vs steal 19% (22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, ATo+, KQo, JTo)
      folds to 4bet 6% and I assume he will push QQ+,AK

      19%[3bet range]-2.4%[4bet range]-1.14%[0.06*19%=1.14% range that he folds to 4bets]=15.76% [range that he calls 4 bets]

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    52.40%  49.67%   2.73% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AQo-ATo, KQo, JTo }
      MP3    47.60%  44.86%   2.73% { KhQs }

      With KQ, we have bag equity vs 15% range

      Conclusion: Against this opponent I need to:

      4bet only with TT+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQo

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    39.45%  37.26%   2.19% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AQo-ATo, KQo, JTo }
      MP3    60.55%  58.36%   2.19% { TT+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Quite an interesting spot we have here.

      Preflop I would rather just call here. Don't really want to build up the pot too much with K high.

      If we plan to just cbet the flop and check/fold the turn I would rather check/fold right on the flop.
      Don't really think we have too much fold equity on this board and I can hardly imagine a better hand folding.
      So we either play bet/bet to try make him fold PPs/Ax or just check/fold on the flop.