NL400 QQ 3b pot awkard spot

    • Deliveranced
      Deliveranced
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2012 Posts: 222
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
      SB ($785)
      Hero ($464)
      UTG ($661)
      UTG+1 ($533)
      CO ($368)
      BTN ($400)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: Q:club:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $8, SB calls $6, Hero raises to $34, BTN calls $26, fold

      FLOP ($76) 8:diamond: 9:diamond: A:spade:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $38, Hero folds

      BTN wins $73

      Very small sample size on villain, he looks to be a decent regular. I think I 3b him once in the last orbit and he folded.

      Question is, can a cbet be profitable on this board? If you're looking at a likely call to 3b range of J9s+,QTs+,KTs+,KJo+ (he has less combos of KQ as I have QQ),ATs+,AJo+,77-TT (he 4b/calls rest most likely) I don't think we have enough FEQ and pretty much any turn besides a Q is gonna be even more awkard.

      C/c feels like burning money also, he will sometimes ch/back turns with Ax and he's going to at least double-barrel weaker 1pair/draws type of his hands.

      Thoughts?
  • 14 replies
    • Agiz19
      Agiz19
      Gold
      Joined: 19.03.2007 Posts: 1,119
      well maybe my opinion is not like coach but as the preflop dynamic went you should cbet and fold to reraise as you were the agressor plus his button open raising is quite wide...
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      x/f is pretty bad I think. I would x/c with Qd here also because he has hands like TJs, QJs KJs etc a lot and I think he would rather raise those on the flop than just float.
    • axelphoney
      axelphoney
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2009 Posts: 2,397
      You guys who advocate a c/c as a default in this spot, how do you tend to proceed OTT?
    • thesundancekid
      thesundancekid
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.05.2011 Posts: 151
      I agree with what your thought process is in the hand, BUT...IMO,

      i should have c/bet flop and then evaluate next move with what villain does, if villain raises ur c/bet = fold. if villain flat ur cbet...i would fire another barrow no matter what the turn,, if he still flats you check fold river...IMO...

      ( the reason i would fire 2 barrows ( if villain didn't raise flop c/bet) you can rep so many hands here also... but check folding flop is bad IMO b'coz u are getting zero info , you may of had best hand !! sometimes you have to risk a little to win alot !! :) hope that helps friend..
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,145
      so you check/fold KQ etc here?

      also, did you forget to remove AK from his range?

      anyway, i think his preflop range is slightly weaker than that.
      also, i think you can get a huge amount of turn folds by 2barrelling(unless your perceived ranges aren't suitable), plus you have 2 quite good outs.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      You really think c-betting A high flops in 3bet pots is not profitable? He only needs to fold 50% of the time since your sizing should be about 1/2 pot and i think you get way more then 50% folds on A high flops.

      I think your only option is to c-bet, and if he really never folds to c-bets in 3bet pots then just c/f. I don't think c/c is ever an option. He will bet every Ax at least 2 streets and bluff with a balanced frequency as well betting at least twice with all his draws. You would really need specific reads to do anything but a one and done c-bet or a c/f.
    • Deliveranced
      Deliveranced
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2012 Posts: 222
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      You really think c-betting A high flops in 3bet pots is not profitable? He only needs to fold 50% of the time since your sizing should be about 1/2 pot and i think you get way more then 50% folds on A high flops.

      I think your only option is to c-bet, and if he really never folds to c-bets in 3bet pots then just c/f. I don't think c/c is ever an option. He will bet every Ax at least 2 streets and bluff with a balanced frequency as well betting at least twice with all his draws. You would really need specific reads to do anything but a one and done c-bet or a c/f.
      its not just 'an ace-high flop', its a super well coordinated board that hits his range really well.

      its an anonymous table, cant really expect him to call light pre so thats why im thinking i dont have 50% FEQ (pretty hard to estimate but im not sure i even have 30%) so i dont see a point in betting once and c/f'ing everything but a queen on the turn.

      le: and i need 33% FEQ if i bet 1/2 flop

      @kruppe y, my bad, he def 4b/calls AK, prolly AQs too

      Originally posted by Kruppe
      so you check/fold KQ etc here?

      close to 100% of the time i think, yes.
    • PoincaresConjecture
      PoincaresConjecture
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.10.2011 Posts: 115
      dont u think u can bet flop and turn for value? i mean theres a lot of draws that u bet too and that he can have himself, more than Ax i guess. so any blank turn is good for u and any diamond is also ok. c/f flop seams to weak and getting into the c/c spot is difficult. so only options is to bet flop, bet a lot of turns and c/f or even c/c river IMHO.

      best regards
    • Itsnevereasy
      Itsnevereasy
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      I like your x/f a lot!

      I dont like x/c with QQ, do it with Ax not QQ if you think he reacts very aggro vs a check in a 3bet pot. Actually with AT/AJ, I would cbet flop and x/c turn and river on most runouts, because imo this looks weaker than x/c on the flop straight away.

      Anywat, its an extremely coordinated board and he is folding extremely rarely on the flop.

      As an alternative you should consider triple barreling as a bluff. He will call a lot on the flop and turn but can he call with AJ type hands on the river. Maybe not. It would work best if you have a reasonable image and if he is capable to fold top pairs. Stat that can help you is WTSD - you should be looking to triple barrel opponents with ~22% WTSD and not so much ~28% WTSD.

      Interesting hand. Post some more? :)
    • Mat55
      Mat55
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2013 Posts: 92
      As a beginner I can only see that either he has:

      1. a pair of Aces
      2. Flush draw
      3. Bluff
      4. Some hidden straight possibilities if he has like TJ

      Risky, but if he has pocket aces alone then you are beat.

      hope you enjoyed my terrible analysis!! :f_cool:

      Edit: I think you showed MAJOR weakness checking on the flop and you allowed him to take full control because there were plenty of scare cards.
    • jakelamotta
      jakelamotta
      Basic
      Joined: 11.01.2013 Posts: 10
      You can definitely bet profitably, the question should be whether or not its the most EV+ line. I think its very close and depends on how much he calls, the more he calls pre the more inclined Id be to bet. And if I bet Id c/c as youre going to get owned if you c/f here.
    • tatartom
      tatartom
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.11.2010 Posts: 879
      Originally posted by Deliveranced

      le: and i need 25% FEQ if i bet 1/2 flop
      Hi people I am a fish, but math in poker its really elementary.
      If u put 50 to pot 100 that must work 50/(100+50)=33% of the time :f_p:
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by tatartom
      Originally posted by Deliveranced

      le: and i need 25% FEQ if i bet 1/2 flop
      Hi people I am a fish, but math in poker its really elementary.
      If u put 50 to pot 100 that must work 50/(100+50)=33% of the time :f_p:
      You have equity when called so unless you assume you gonna get shoved on and will have to fold every time villain continues the FEQ needed is lower because of your hand EQ
    • camelz3391
      camelz3391
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2011 Posts: 27
      I think this is the kind of spot where we have to bet twice and it feels like a merge.

      Just feels a little dirty to check fold here. Prob the better of 2 evils.