how to evaluate equity before the river?

    • mkjmkjmkj
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 159
      when analysing hands in equilab its always a problem to know if you are going to realise
      the equity.

      so if you have AK on a 238 board is there a easy way to evaluate how much of your flop equity comes from having highcard on the river one pair on the river two pair straight etc.

      i think i it would help me because if i dont think i can get to to showdown with high card vs a player i can take away som of the equity equilab tells me i have on the flop.

      so is there a way to find out where the equity comes from?
  • 4 replies
    • Erevos
      Joined: 09.01.2011 Posts: 129
      Of course there is. At least in order to find the chance of haging 1 pair by the river: rule of 2 and 4.
      About 2 pairs etc, i am not sure right now about the exact formula...
    • mkjmkjmkj
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 159
      im not sure if you a talking about the chance of hitting one pair at the river (sorry for my english i dont know what haging means) but that was not directly what my question was about.

      i mean how often is high card or one pair the best hand at the river vs a specefic villains range? not how often i hit a pair at the river
    • Optroot
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 250
      This is actually not possible yet (AFAIK). We barely understand this on the river with more than one action remaining. Position/Stacks/Ranges play a role in true hand equity. In order to do this properly you need to do a game tree search to find out how the hand will play out, and how much you will win on average.

      The key thing that you pointed calling with marginal showdown hands when there are still multiple rounds of betting. Chances are you wont be able to realize this equity because you will have to eventually fold before showdown, thus surrendering your equity. In reality you don't have, say, 20% equity here, you have 0%.

      Generally on the river, it is better to have a nutted range; the higher your nut:air ratio, the higher your overall pot equity. We could be in a hand and both have 50% equity against each others ranges, but I could have 90%+ 'true' equity, just because of how the hand will play out.

      This implies that on the turn (and flop), we wish to play the range such that the our true river equity averaged over all possible turn/river cards is maximized.

      ANYWAY, this means that hands that always stay marginal like AK on 832 have significantly less value than a hand like Ts9s on 8s3d2c, just because T9s can make then nuts, but AK cannot (mostly). Hands which can swing from bad to good hands easily (like flush/str draws) are valuable and their equity can generally be realized. But again, realizing equity is a function of how the hand will play out, and your entire range, and your opponent range, and so on.

      Sorry for the really vague explanation, hope it helps!
    • mkjmkjmkj
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 159
      i understand that but what im trying find out is not my "true" equity where things like future fold equity should also be included. i was just hoping to get a little closer than just the hand vs range equity in a more quantifiable manner than good playabillity and bad playabillity

      i know villains range change from street to street and with different actions wich then againds depends on the future cards. which is impossible to know

      lets say my hand has 30% equity vs villains range.

      so what i was thinking was if i purely rely on showdown equity no fold equity so villains range remains the same from flop to river no matter what.

      lets say we always folded highcard on the river even if checked to.
      what would my flop equity then be that is what im asking for

      so lets say villain bet half pot then i need 25% equity to call
      given villains tendency i know i never get to showdown with high card
      so if my flop equity is under 25% if i always folded highcard on the river i cant call assuming i have no fold equity.

      i know this is simpliyfied on to how the hand would play in reallity.
      i just thought it would be usefull sometimes to think about it in that way.

      i dont know if it makes any sense or its just random thoughts from me that wouldnt help at all in making a decision in poker.