[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 50 3bp shove vs cbet ???

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $59.61 (119.2 bb)
      BTN: $139.95 (279.9 bb)
      SB: $50 (100 bb)
      Hero (BB): $54.80 (109.6 bb)
      UTG: $68.54 (137.1 bb)
      MP: $50 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A K
      UTG raises to $1.50, MP folds, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5.50, UTG calls $4, CO folds

      Flop: ($12.75) J 8 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.50, UTG raises to $63.04, Hero folds

      $27.75 pot ($1.25 rake)
      Final Board: J 8 6
      Hero mucked A K and lost (-$13 net)
      UTG mucked and won $26.50 ($13.50 net)

      Raise CB 3BP 12

      My preflop sizing is a mistake. I usually make it larger

      I'm baffled by his shove as a raising size and I try to understand when it makes sense.

      I thought of a scenario where he has a non nut draw and wants to make higher draws to fold + QQ-AA.

      Board: J:heart: 8:club: 6:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    72.63%  72.63%   0.00% { 66 }
      MP3    27.37%  27.37%   0.00% { AhTh }

      What do you think his range is ?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I think you can consider bet/call here, his range is very weighted towards draws but folding is also fine.

      Pot odds = ~38%

      Board: Jh8c6h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 36.28% 35.98% 0.30% { AcKc }
      MP3 63.72% 63.41% 0.30% { AhQh, KhQh, AhTh, KhTh, Ah9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Th8h, 9h8h, 8h7h }

      Seems like a bet/fold to me, if we are sure he has no made hands here and even more draws then you can argue for a very thin bet/call on the Flop.

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      1) Would you consider making this play with a set here as UTG since it looks so much like a draw?

      2) Any read you can take from this ? "prolly shoves over cbet in 3bp with draw?"
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      1) In general, no. This is very similar to jamming preflop with small pocketpairs. There are few situations in which I may consider using such plays. But against good players and if you want to have any semblance of balance, you must not use such plays as it creates imbalances in your game and makes it easier for your opponent to hand read you.

      I'm not jamming a set here, that's not wise at all. We can definitely just flat the Flop or even just raise small (helps to balance our small bluff raises on the Flop).

      2) Nope we don't see a showdown. No point writing notes in such situations. It's true that sometimes we can still infer some information without the showdown (like from timing tells, like snap folding the River) but on the Flop I don't think we can learn anything about villain.