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[NL20-NL50] AKo with action in fron - ZOOM NL25

    • batmanbatmanbatman
      Joined: 30.01.2009 Posts: 5,354
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $32.68 (130.7 bb)
      SB: $30.83 (123.3 bb)
      Hero (BB): $84.99 (340 bb)
      UTG: $38.54 (154.2 bb)
      MP: $12.50 (50 bb)
      CO: $12.61 (50.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
      UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, CO folds, BTN calls $0.75, SB raises to $3.25, 3 folds

      $2.50 pot
      SB mucked and won $2.50 ($1.75 net)

      All regs:
      MP: 10/8, 9% positional open, 58% positional fold to 3bet, 31% call vs 3bet, 60% fold vs conti in 3bet pot.
      BU: 18/14, 52% fold vs 3bet, seems decent post
      SB: 22/15/5.5, with 4.2 3bet vs MP and 79% conti in 3bet pots. Also 44% fold to 4bet.

      No dynamic that I am aware of with any of them.

      Here is what the lag inside me is thinking:
      As I see it, this is a good spot for SB to 3bet bluff because he often wins it pre and when he doesn't he often takes it down with a conti.

      Here is what the nit inside me is thinking:
      However, from his stats I am not so sure that he is the player who would notice this. Even when he would be, he might just not bother to 3bet wider in this spot just because MP is so tight with opening and SB might not feel the need to exploit him.

      I think I can never call to play this hand OOP vs such nitty ranges. I also think that I am overplaying if I 4bet/jam because they are so nits that they likely fold even QQ & AK here and the bluff range of SB seems very small. Even though I think they go broke only KK+, I am almost sure a 4bet bluff is not profitable given the MP & SB stats.

      So I decide to just muck it. I am aware that this makes me 4bet here only KK+... and I am not so sure this is a bad thing. I don't think being unbalanced vs these players would hurt me in the long run.

      Considering the nit argument... I actually wonder if KK should not be also a fold...
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,331
      Hey batmanbatmanbatman,

      I read your notes and I agree with what you are saying.

      It's fine to fold AK in this spot. MP is likely strong, SB is likely strong when he squeezes vs a tight open raiser.

      He may not actually be aware MP is tight, but even if you 4bet MP is certainly not going to continue with worse vs a 4bet.

      At higher stakes where ranges are a little wider you should tend towards playing the hand, but you will occasionally find spots at micros where folding AK pf is completely fine.