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[NL20-NL50] 88 over pair called twice

    • Gonchan
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,877
      IPoker, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $50.50 (101 bb)
      BB: $50.13 (100.3 bb)
      Hero (CO): $50.50 (101 bb)
      BTN: $50.50 (101 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 8 8
      Hero raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) 7 6 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3

      Turn: ($9.75) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.50, BTN calls $6.50

      River: ($22.75) 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $11.37, Hero folds

      $22.75 pot ($1.13 rake)
      Final Board: 7 6 4 7 3
      Hero mucked 8 8 and lost (-$11 net)
      BTN mucked and won $21.62 ($10.62 net)

      24/19/1.0k af2.4 ftcb 49.

      I thought he had still vast draw but I don't know how much he had.
      what about turn bet and river?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Gonchan,

      Preflop: looks fine.

      Postflop: As played I think we should call the river. Villain hardly ever has a better hand because in CO vs BTN, 4 handed we can expect at least JJ+ to 3-bet, if not TT+ which means that there's only one (at most two) overpairs that beat us.

      We can also expect most 7x to try and raise the turn for value and pretty much every draw except 5x missed the river. You only need to be good 25% of the time.

      Now, going back to the turn, I think we may have more value in checking to let him bet his floats/draws/etc and I would look at how often he bets versus a missed cbet.