[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH 99 QJx cbet?

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($31.98)
      BB ($31.30)
      UTG ($35.59)
      Hero ($20)
      CO ($21.01)
      BTN ($21.22)

      Dealt to Hero 9:diamond: 9:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.30) 8:spade: J:spade: Q:heart:

      BB checks, Hero checks

      TURN ($1.30) 8:spade: J:spade: Q:heart: T:spade:

      BB bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

      RIVER ($2.90) 8:spade: J:spade: Q:heart: T:spade: 5:diamond:

      BB bets $1.40, Hero folds

      BB wins $2.76

      23/3 36h

      I think this generates much folds from PPs and there is lot of Jx, Qx. BUt also there is lot of draws which can pay me.

      I tried pung his calling range:

      AKs,KTs,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,AKo,KTo,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+

      and I see I have only 35% equity, so not cbeting is correct now I think.

      On the turn I have straight, so I have tio call. THere are hands which beat men - flushes and better straight but theere can be bluffs as well and overplayued sets, 2 pairs I think.

      On river I think he is not bluffing too often so I fold - not too tight?
  • 1 reply
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      Hmm, I do think it's too tight. Sure he can have some flushes and maybe a few combos of K9, but with his weak ass looking half pot on the river I wouldn't be surprised if we're splitting here a large portion of the time. He could even be valuebetting some stuff that we beat I think! You probably cbet most of your 9x combos on the flop since they have a gutshot. It's somewhat close I guess, but given that we only need to be good 25%, I think it's a call.

      ifs