[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH Q9s delaycet cbet on river

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20.48)
      BB ($29.22)
      Hero ($38.53)
      BTN ($8.56)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: 9:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, fold, fold

      FLOP ($1.50) 6:diamond: 3:heart: 5:club:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      TURN ($1.50) 6:diamond: 3:heart: 5:club: 2:club:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      RIVER ($1.50) 6:diamond: 3:heart: 5:club: 2:club: T:diamond:

      Hero bets $0.70, BTN calls $0.70



      board is bad on flop, he can be calling light, not much equity so I don't cbet.

      TUnr is not better for me, so again check.

      After he shoved the weakness, I thought I can make some 2x fold but not sure. MAybe overcards which are better than my should fold, I need to make him fold 30% of the time at least.

      Is it good bluff on river?
  • 7 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hi,

      I think your river bet will work reasonably often. You correctly noticed that you need him to fold A and K highs to make it OK, even if he calls with quite a few better hands. What you have to ask yourself though is if he checks those all the way or bluffs them earlier. If he has them in his river range I like the bet. If you get called by what you wanted him to fold you know your play wasn't good and you have to adjust ofc.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      What you have to ask yourself though is if he checks those all the way or bluffs them earlier.


      he is passive, so he checks most often.

      And he called as I remember with AJ.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      It's not a problem that he called AJ imo. If he has K high that folds and the better K highs you basically lose to some A high that are air (not that many on that board) and a couple of rivered Tx. Your bet should still be +EV.
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      He looks a little stationy.

      If I were going to try to get him to fold I'd near pot it at least or even overbet to get PP's too.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by jules97
      He looks a little stationy.

      If I were going to try to get him to fold I'd near pot it at least or even overbet to get PP's too.
      He bets too many of his pairs before the river so you end up playing against what is mostly air, that's why you can bet 1/2-2/3 pot and have a very +EV bet,
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      I agree with what you are putting him on.

      I think that against a better reg a small bet is good, because he can interpret that size as that his A or K high is getting valuebet and find a fold.

      But against this fishier guy who is looking for an excuse to call, he is going to see a small bet as good odds to call down with. And a near pot size bet gets a lot more FE.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      It is true that a small bet gets less folding equity but does it get that much less that a bigger bet is more +EV? It's such a small difference that it's impossible to calculate. Our EV changes when we risk a lot more so we actually NEED the bet to work way more often to keep the SAME EV. Just because we win the pot more often won't necessarily mean our EV is higher given how much we lose when we don't win the pot. Imo, both bets are +EV but telling which sizining is MaxEV is almost impossible in this scenario because the station might just be randomly clicking buttons while enjoying a nice cold beer and not carring about the money so he might fold a straight sometimes because he feels like it or call with J high for the same reason.

      That's obviously not a huge consideration, I just mean that factors we cannot estimate make enough of a difference that our EV will remain almost the same regardless of our sizing here, unless we make a super small or super big bet. Basically, from 1/2 to potsize it will be same EV imo.