[NL2-NL10] NL10 T3o river bluff?

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Pacific, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP3: $4.10 (41 bb)
      CO: $14.66 (146.6 bb)
      BTN: $10 (100 bb)
      Hero (SB): $10 (100 bb)
      BB: $11.17 (111.7 bb)
      UTG+1: $32.12 (321.2 bb)
      UTG+2: $8 (80 bb)
      MP1: $2 (20 bb)
      MP2: $10.55 (105.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 3 T
      7 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.60) Q J A (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30

      Turn: ($1.20) T (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks

      River: ($1.20) 9 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.57, BB folds

      Results:
      $1.80 pot ($0.09 rake)
      Final Board: Q J A T 9
      Hero mucked 3 T and won $1.71 ($0.81 net)
      BB mucked and lost (-$0.90 net)


      PF was just trying to steal. perhaps should just give up on this flop. River his bets look super weakish was a bluff appropriate here to rep an 8 or K?
  • 3 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      i think pre flop steal could be profitable, check his fold to steal stat on the BB? more than 70% we have a profitable steal.

      on the flop i think its fine to throw a CB to fold out small pocket pairs and undercards that would otherwise bluff us out on the flop or turn. you have a gutshot draw to the straight too.

      if you think hes bluffing the river you dont have to check-raise, you can call since you have showdown value.

      regards
      cgf
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Originally posted by cutegoldfish
      i think pre flop steal could be profitable, check his fold to steal stat on the BB? more than 70% we have a profitable steal.

      on the flop i think its fine to throw a CB to fold out small pocket pairs and undercards that would otherwise bluff us out on the flop or turn. you have a gutshot draw to the straight too.

      if you think hes bluffingthe river you dont have to check-raise, you can call since you have showdown value.

      regards
      cgf
      Maybe he has a Q or J here sometimes?
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      good question.

      firstly i dont think the Q or J would bet for value, more likely he has 2p or the A or just a random bluff.

      and we dont have to be right all the time calling such a small bet, i think we are right probably more than 33% of the time and this is still a profitable call