[NL20-NL50] FR25 Zoom ATs NFD 13 nutted outs on turn facing overbet

    • ChangNoi77
      ChangNoi77
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.06.2012 Posts: 352
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($30.44)
      BB ($40.76)
      UTG ($14.90)
      UTG+1 ($80.93)
      UTG+2 ($25)
      MP1 ($10.74)
      MP2 ($26.71)
      CO ($21.40)
      Hero ($41.93)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: T:club:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, BB calls $0.25

      FLOP ($1.10) 8:spade: K:club: 9:club:

      BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BB raises to $1.40, Hero calls $0.70

      TURN ($3.90) 8:spade: K:club: 9:club: 6:heart:

      BB bets $7.75, Hero calls $7.75

      RIVER ($19.40) 8:spade: K:club: 9:club: 6:heart: 9:diamond:

      BB bets $9.25, Hero folds

      BB wins $18.53

      Villain is 16/5 over 37 hands, looks super passive and bad.

      Am I right to assume this player type almost always has a set or two pair here?, and that he will likely pay me enough on the river if I hit to make my turn call okay?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Chang,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I think that our call on the turn is poor.

      We don't get the immediate odds even if we count our gutshot and on top of that we may have reversed implied odds on a 6 or 8 which cuts our outs from 9 to 7 (plus 3). So we only have ~20 % equity and we need 40%.

      For me it's a clear fold.