[NL20-NL50] QTs 2nd nut FD

    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,562
      Ongame Network $30.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2120598
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (CO): $29.55 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 2.9, Hands: 32822
      BTN: $29.55 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 8, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 89
      SB: $76.19 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 3, AF: 1.0, Hands: 152
      23% agg. freq. 44WTSD
      BB: $30.00 - VPIP: 100, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 1
      UTG: $35.71 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 3.8, Hands: 643

      Pre Flop: ($0.45) Hero is CO with Q :club: T :club:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60

      Flop: ($2.70) J :club: 4 :club: 8 :heart: (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.90, SB calls $1.90, BB calls $1.90

      Turn: ($8.40) 5 :spade: (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($8.40) K :club: (3 players)
      SB bets $4.20, BB folds, Hero?

      On the river? He probably doesn`t have a lot of worse flushes. He might have a set sometimes. Maybe straight with 67s but again it`s not very likely.
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hiya,

      If I didn't count incorrectly, he has 7 possible nutflush combos in his range. He still has 7 combos of lower flushes as well. This means you can raise for value and get called by some KJ, 76s combos. I think it's unlikley he plays a set like that on the flop or turn so my thinking is 2pairs, flushes and straights.


      SB    49.99%  49.99%   0.00% { AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }
    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,562
      So it`s better to raise (smth. like 12$), instead of shoving? And if i raise and he shoves? I guess it would be a crying call, because of the pot odds?
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      If you raise small you are more likely to get looked up by KJ. I think straights call just about all the time. That means my prefered line is to shove most often. If you raise small and he shoves, will he do it with any flush? I think he won't shove with all flushes so you lose value there too. Knowing how polarized his flushes are (nuts and very low) you probably expect him to only shove nut flushes but never fold to a raise with a straight or better so it's a value shove imo.