[NL20-NL50] NL25sh 55 set on monotone flop, heavy action

    • member001
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 288
      Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players

      CO: $28.20 (112.8 bb) 22/14 (49h)
      BTN: $127.24 (509 bb)
      SB: $9.85 (39.4 bb)
      BB: $10 (40 bb) 15/11 (53h)
      UTG: $99.68 (398.7 bb)
      Hero (MP): $41.87 (167.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with 5 5
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.35) 7 5 Q (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2, CO raises to $5, BB raises to $9.25 and is all-in, Hero calls $7.25, CO raises to $27.45 and is all-in, Hero calls $18.20

      Turn: ($66.50) 6 (3 players, 2 are all-in)
      River: ($66.50) T (3 players, 2 are all-in)

      $66.50 pot ($3 rake)
      Final Board: 7 5 Q 6 T
      CO showed A 6 and won $63.50 ($35.30 net)
      BB showed 8 J and lost (-$10 net)
      Hero showed 5 5 and lost (-$28.20 net)

      Small samples but both villains do not seem crazy.

      I should just fold after BB cold 3bets on the flop. IMO villains are betting for value close to 100% of the time here, and their value range consists only of made flushes and made sets, all of which beat me. I don't see many people playing overpair-with-a- aggressively in these spots. BB's small stack size kind of sucked me in, but I think I should have found a fold because it's clear that at least one, and possibly both, villains have me crushed.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Agree with your analysis. with Top set I would just stick the money in, but with bottom set I think we can fold. If we knew both of them were always on flushes then I think with 33% equity we can stack off here. But we don't know that and if we are up against a higher set, we are completely crushed.

      I think I would still play for stacks here with 77, simply because they almost never have QQ here given the preflop action.

      HOWEVER, you'll need to note the stack sizes of both of them. One guy is short, and one guy is deep. So even if we have 33% equity, that only applies to the main pot. We still have a side pot with the guy who is deep and we are a larger underdog vs him.

      So I think I would just fold here. If stack sizes were equal, I would stack off with 77/QQ, expecting it to get 3way most of the time.