[NL2-NL10] ATs 022313

    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      9 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($14.88) 149bb
      UTG+1 ($4.60) 46bb
      MP1 ($10) 100bb
      MP2 ($8.65) 87bb
      MP3 ($11.78) 118bb
      CO ($9.43) 94bb
      BTN ($10) 100bb
      Hero (SB) ($15.43) 154bb
      BB ($4.14) 41bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 9 players) Hero is SB 10:club: A:club:
      7 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, BB calls $0.30

      Flop: 6:heart: A:heart: 4:heart: ($0.80, 2 players)
      Hero bets $0.73, BB raises to $1.70, Hero goes all-in $15.03
  • 6 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Usually I would always bet/fold the Flop on monotone boards. I just think that villain needs to have a super wide bluffing/semi-bluffing range here in order to justify stacking off here. And we are not even faring too well vs his KhX or QhX type of hands, while his sets/twopairs/flushes are completely crushing us.

      1) Your Flop bet size is way too large. I think you are just overplaying your AT here.

      2) I like the option of check/call. Villain raises so often on the Flop, and I'd expect him to stab when checked to very often as well. Bet IP vs missed cbet = 2 out of 3 times.

      Thanks.
    • Dyszka90
      Dyszka90
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,683
      .
    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      but it's BvB, he could have worse Ax and he only have 41BB? ?(
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      He could, but would he raise the Flop with them?

      I'll suggest you use pokerstrategy equilab to find out how badly you are faring vs a normal range when you stack off here with AX on a monotone Flop.

      Give him some flushes, sets, two-pairs, and some KhX or QhX hands. Then play around with the ranges, give a conservative and optimistic range to villain. You'll find that we are doing very poorly.

      Try posting it here and I'll have a look
    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      call PF range: TT-22,AQs-A2s,K5s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,AQo-A7o,K9o+,Q9o+,JTo,T9o
      if he r/c with any Ax:

      Board: 6:heart: A:heart: 4:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    39.33%  33.48%   5.85% { AcTc }
      MP3    60.67%  54.83%   5.85% { 6d6s, 6d6c, 6s6c, 4d4s, 4d4c, 4s4c, AdQd, AsQs, KhQh, AdJd, AsJs, KhJh, QhJh, AdTd, AsTs, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ad9d, As9s, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ad8d, As8s, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Ad7d, As7s, Kh7h, 8h7h, Ad6d, As6s, Ad5d, As5s, Kh5h, Ad4d, As4s, Ad3d, As3s, Ad2d, As2s, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AdTh, AdTs, AsTd, AsTh, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ad9c, As9d, As9h, As9c, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ad8c, As8d, As8h, As8c, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ad7c, As7d, As7h, As7c, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KhTd, KhTs, Kh9d, Kh9s, Kh9c }

      if he doesn't raise Ax:

      Board: 6:heart: A:heart: 4:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    21.86%  21.15%   0.71% { AcTc }
      MP3    78.14%  77.43%   0.71% { 6d6s, 6d6c, 6s6c, 4d4s, 4d4c, 4s4c, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Kh7h, 8h7h, Ad6d, As6s, Kh5h, Ad4d, As4s, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KhTd, KhTs, Kh9d, Kh9s, Kh9c }

      so we can only hope him bluffing with wide range when in BvB?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I think your optimistic range seems really optimistic. you gave him too many AXo hands which will actually call most of the time.

      Also, you only have 39% equity based on your estimates, so that is not strong enough to 3bet the flop for value, that's for sure.

      So your options here are to call or fold. WIth 39% equity I think it would probably be barely strong enough to call a flop raise, but I think your optimistic estimate is way too optimistic, I'll probably give u 35% or less equity. So if we take the average of your optimistic and conservative estimates we have <30% equity and we are so badly crushed here that we should definitely bet/fold.