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[NL20-NL50] FR25 Zoom 3 bet pot JJ

    • ChangNoi77
      Joined: 27.06.2012 Posts: 352
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($23.20)
      BB ($26.86)
      UTG ($26.39)
      UTG+1 ($56.82)
      UTG+2 ($21.44)
      MP1 ($14.74)
      MP2 ($25.10)
      Hero ($71.55)
      BTN ($13.35)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: J:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.75

      FLOP ($5.10) 2:diamond: 2:club: 6:club:

      BB bets $3, Hero calls $3

      TURN ($11.10) 2:diamond: 2:club: 6:club: 7:club:

      BB bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50

      RIVER ($26.10) 2:diamond: 2:club: 6:club: 7:club: 5:heart:

      BB bets $13.86 (AI),

      Villain is 15/12 over 288 hands and seems aggressive, but his WTSD is low at 19%. He's 3 betting 14% from the BB, so I'm assuming he has a ton of crap that gives up after flop or turn.

      I don't know how often we should expect him to fire 3 with air at these stakes given that he should know we're aware that he's super light most of the time.Our hand also looks like TT-QQ and can we expect him to be thinking that we may fold?

      He also must have all the PP that hit as well. As much as I hate folding overpairs in 3 bet pots I can't decide if I prefer folding over calling. I doubt he would even shove 88 or 99 here, bluff catching seems more likely.

      We need 26%, how close is this, and how much more does it become a fold if villain is a std 12/10 that 3 bets 6-7% from the BB?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      If you´re calling turn you should also call river. He is likely barreling turn all his flushdraws and since river did not change anything he is likely going to shove sometimes his Acx hands.
      Also overpairs QQ-AA may go pot control on the turn or take c/rai line instead of bet/bet/shove.

      Consider his 3-bet percent I would likely raise flop 6.4$ to induce shove Ax hands. He is likely going to shut down on blank turns and would continue barreling on Q, K, A where it is not very easy to call him down.
      Also if he is 3-betting 77-TT or has some 6x hands he would likely take bet/shove line.

      best regards,