[NL2-NL10] co JJ

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2123191
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (CO): $9.60 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2,0, Hands: 113561
      BTN: $6.44 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 8, 3B: 5, AF: 3,3, Hands: 408, bu 3b:12,5%, 3b vs hero: first time (3%)
      SB: $14.12 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 11, AF: 1,3, Hands: 43
      BB: $12.01 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 17, 3B: 7, AF: 2,8, Hands: 89

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with J :heart: J :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.15, BTN raises to $0.50, 2 folds, Hero?
      I dunno whether I should take the BU 3b into consideration (4b big/call), or the 3b vs hero (simply fold).

      I mean, premiums are 2,5%, if the guy 3bets 12,5% from the BU, it has a LOT of weak hands. Only 20% of his hands would actually go broke here imo, so 4betting isnt that bad, making AQ fold here is nice.

      OR

      He 3bets rarely vs ME, and only that matters?
  • 7 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      12.5% of how much sample size? I would usually fold here, unless we have some decent sample size (which with 400 hands overall could be hard). Overall, without seeing what he 3betted, we should fold and not get ourselves into tricky spots.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by kymupa
      Hello,

      12.5% of how much sample size? I would usually fold here, unless we have some decent sample size (which with 400 hands overall could be hard). Overall, without seeing what he 3betted, we should fold and not get ourselves into tricky spots.

      Best,
      Plamen
      12,5% is 12,5%
      That is his most likely 3betting range. We cant just wait and play super-weak until we have 1000 hand sample from a guy before we start playing back!
      You say that one could exploit you totally by 3betting you always until we dont have 1000 hand sample? I mean, JJ is a coinflip vs 12,5%, that is why I feel that is enough dead money in the middle to 4b and ge tit in.
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Well, 12.5% could mean 1 out of 8 times, and 100 out of 800 times at the same time.

      The problem with the first example is that villain could easily 3bet QQ+, AK only (lets say) and the chance of him having QQ+, AK in one out of eight hands is around 20% and for sure 12.5% isn't any close to QQ+, AK only.

      Also, for the 400 hands we have on him, he didn't really showed that he is up to exploiting people considering his stats so I definitely wouldn't mind playing "weak" against him.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by kymupa
      Well, 12.5% could mean 1 out of 8 times, and 100 out of 800 times at the same time.

      The problem with the first example is that villain could easily 3bet QQ+, AK only (lets say) and the chance of him having QQ+, AK in one out of eight hands is around 20% and for sure 12.5% isn't any close to QQ+, AK only.

      Also, for the 400 hands we have on him, he didn't really showed that he is up to exploiting people considering his stats so I definitely wouldn't mind playing "weak" against him.
      How did you get that 20%?
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      QQ+, AK are 2.56%.

      The chance of not getting QQ+, AK in one hand is 97.44%. The chance of not getting QQ+, AK is 97.44% ^ 8 which is around 80%. That means that we have around 20% chance of getting QQ+, AK at least once.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Thank you for your patience and understanding kymupa btw, you are awesome :heart:

      12,5% outof 32, so 4 times out of 32.
      EV (AA, KK, QQ, AK)~0.8 times of 32.

      How big sample would we need to stack off here? 8 out of 64?
      Or it doesnt matter how much he 3bets from the BU, the more important question is: how much he 3bets vs us? (1st time out of 29, =3.4%)
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Basically, everything matters here.

      If he 3bets a lot against us, then it is an easy stack off, if he uses his position well I would stack of as well.

      Usually, I would rely on 50+ sample, but would take a look at his overall 3bet at all.