Fold Equity??

    • zachrina
      zachrina
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2012 Posts: 934
      Hello All,

      We often hear the term Fold Equity being thrown around!

      I have looked in the glossary ( http://www.pokerstrategy.com/glossary/Fold-Equity/ ) and while I understand that it is the percentage chance that the other players will fold I don't really understand how the equation works?? How do we put a % on the chance someone will fold?? Or do we even need to use this at the tables??

      In equation speak does * mean multiply (x)??

      I also hear people using the term in live poker and am unsure they even know that they're using it in the correct context!

      Thanks,
      Zach
  • 10 replies
    • Lucker9200
      Lucker9200
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.06.2010 Posts: 271
      Divide the expected range opponent will continue facing a raise/bet over opponent's whole range on a given street and you will get the number of times he won't fold. The FE is 1 minus that number*100

      For example if you expect someone to open-raise UTG with a range of 11%[lets say 22+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo] but when facing a 3x 3bet from BU will fold everything but KK+ meaning 0.9% , the guy will continue against you if you are BU in 0.9/11 (expected continuing range over expected whole range) = 0.08 multiplied by100 (0.08*100) = 8%
      Your FE is 100%-8% = 92% in this case

      Thats the way I understand it, hope it helps
    • zachrina
      zachrina
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2012 Posts: 934
      Thanks,

      Stuff really takes a while to go in with me. I will work on it.
      I sometimes question whether I am smart enought to succeed at this game!
    • Lucker9200
      Lucker9200
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.06.2010 Posts: 271
      Everyone is "smart" enough to succeed at anything and everyone's chances increase dramatically with each attempt for whatever so just keep working/trying and you will get there :)
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Nice explanation Lucker! Thanks for that! :f_love:

      I just want to add something to this. Always keep an eye on stacksizes. If the pot is $10 and the villain has $1 left he's very unlikely going to fold if you bet because of the pot odds.

      This however is something you need to do preflop. If you see someone with a shallow stack preflop you know that postflop his stacksize is going to be even less and you'll have less folding equity.

      Regards

      RasTweet
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Thank you Lucker9200, that post was very helpful indeed :)
    • zachrina
      zachrina
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2012 Posts: 934
      The FE is 1 minus that number*100


      Sorry, back on this again!

      What is meant by the above quote?? You said "1 minus that number" but then I never saw this part in your working out??? Where does the "1" come into it?

      Basically my FE is lower if: villain is a calliing station, villain has a short stack, I have a loose image, We can quickly work out villain will not fold in certain situations based on stats

      My FE is higher if: conditions are the opposite of the above mentioned

      ???

      Thanks,
      Zach
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by Lucker9200
      Divide the expected range opponent will continue facing a raise/bet over opponent's whole range on a given street and you will get the number of times he won't fold. The FE is 1 minus that number*100

      For example if you expect someone to open-raise UTG with a range of 11%[lets say 22+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo] but when facing a 3x 3bet from BU will fold everything but KK+ meaning 0.9% , the guy will continue against you if you are BU in 0.9/11 (expected continuing range over expected whole range) = 0.08 multiplied by100 (0.08*100) = 8%
      Your FE is 100%-8% = 92% in this case

      Thats the way I understand it, hope it helps
      Fold equity is a %?
      I always thought it was expressed in terms of chips/bb, so if your opponent raises to 3bb and you 3bet to 9bb your fold equity is 92% of the 3bb in the pot, so our fold equity here is 2.76bb.
      I might be wrong though, and I guess either way it doesn't really matter as long as you understand how to use these numbers to make +EV decisions.
    • Lucker9200
      Lucker9200
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.06.2010 Posts: 271
      Originally posted by metza

      Fold equity is a %?
      The formula above is for fold percentage id say, but its part of calculating the overall EV and FE when having exact betsizings and equity in a situation.

      What is meant by the above quote?? You said "1 minus that number" but then I never saw this part in your working out??? Where does the "1" come into it?
      The 1 is used in 100%-8%, where 1=100%

      Basically my FE is lower if: villain is a calliing station, villain has a short stack, I have a loose image, We can quickly work out villain will not fold in certain situations based on stats

      My FE is higher if: conditions are the opposite of the above mentioned
      Mostly FE depends on betsizing compared to pot(aka bigger u bet more folds u get but there are exceptions),opponent(the more he calls, the less he folds),board(the better it hits opponent's range, the more decent hands he has, the less he folds),image (the looser you appear to your opponents, the less they will fold)... I guess there are more but cant think of atm
    • zachrina
      zachrina
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2012 Posts: 934
      Ah okay,

      The 1=100% is obvious now, thanks. Like I said previously things take a while to register with me!

      Thanks.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Thank you everyone! :)