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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 50 A8s vs aggro reg in SB

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $50.67 (101.3 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $58.96 (117.9 bb)
      SB: $61.83 (123.7 bb)
      BB: $23.75 (47.5 bb)
      MP: $50.50 (101 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with A 8
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB raises to $4, BB folds, Hero calls $2.75

      Flop: ($8.50) T K 5 (2 players)
      SB bets $4, Hero calls $4

      Turn: ($16.50) 7 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $9, SB calls $9

      River: ($34.50) T (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $18.50, SB calls $18.50

      $71.50 pot ($2.50 rake)
      Final Board: T K 5 7 T
      Hero showed A 8 and lost (-$35.50 net)
      SB showed 6 K and won $69 ($33.50 net)

      1)Guy is not folding to 4bets so I just flat.

      2)With his high turn barrel freq I think it would be better to raise flop with my backdoors.

      3)I expect him to have some showdown value a decent amount of the time after he checks turn. I did not took wis 34 WTSD into consideration because he has a W@SD of 50. Is it good to fire 2 vs this player or should I be expecting to get called very often on the river after I get called on the turn?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Preflop: call is fine as i think his 3b is on the smaller side.

      Flop: i dont think u rep anything with a raise. I would just fold the flop. With stuff like gutshots i would often think about double floating and blufding river if oponent tends to 2barrel and give up on river.

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      I thought the popup would contain some more stats but I was wrong. Here is an update, my mistake.

      3bet SB vs BTN 17
      cbet 3bp 96
      db 3bp 50

      Any change on that fold on the flop ? Or it is just a case of him hitting too much on this 2 broadway board and us having many strong hands ourselves on this board, A8s being towards the bottom?
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Yeah I think a good part of our 3b calling range will comprise the stronger broadways as well as the weaker suited broadways.

      You can try using pokerstrategy equilab to see how wide you are actually defending and check the %, then see how often you actually have a draw or pair which you can use to float the Flop with.

      He's betting around half pot so his bluff needs to work 33% of the time to break even. In order to not be exploited you'll need to not fold 67% of the time. Of course this is a very simplified way of looking at this exact spot when we are thinking about overall ranges on this particular board texture but I guess you could start from here.

      Of course if he folds really often to flop raises but barrels a lot on the turn then you could make an argument for an exploitative play like raising flop but i think a better opponent will play back at you.