[NL2-NL10] Q9o Semi-bluff raise vs lead

    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 135
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $10.10
      CO: $11.11
      Hero (BTN): $11.62
      SB: $12.65

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 9:club: Q:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.65, 2 players) 8:spade: J:diamond: 6:spade:
      BB bets $0.41, Hero raises to $1.20, BB calls $0.79

      Turn: ($3.05, 2 players) A:club:
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, BB calls $2.00

      River: ($7.05, 2 players) T:spade:
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, BB calls $2.00

      Hero shows 9:club: Q:spade: (Straight, Queen High) (Pre 35%, Flop 33%, Turn 9%)
      BB mucks J:heart: A:heart: (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks) (Pre 65%, Flop 67%, Turn 91%)
      Hero wins $10.50

      Villain is A 20/17 tag. He calls tighly on sb an 3bets 3% from the blinds on 2,5k hand sample.

      On the flop i think that his lead means a hand that doesn't like to ch call or dosen't want me to ch back.

      With an one Overcard and a gutter i can bluff raise, i think. If called the plan is to bet big on every card that brings the flush, or T. Bet small the T of spades and the Q probably and ch back the rest.

      Same plan on the river if checked to me twice.

      On that turn card i re-evalute. I think that i can fold QJ,KJ ( KK,QQ that were slowplayed PF)and all draws that Tags do no like to ch-call on the turn with. Plus he has less AJ hands. So i bet.

      If he calls again i give up on every card even if it brings a flush. Except my staright which i think has some value to squeeze vs QQ+, AJ. So i bet small.

      Ofc i would fold to a raise that i might have been induced by my small bet in the first place. But a) after so many hands i have played with him he remains passive to pull out this kind of bluff otr and b) he snap-checked the river card.
  • 5 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Hey Deomedes,

      With a 2.5k hand sample, the most relevant stat to check is likely going to be donk-bet flop. If this villain has a low donk-bet flop stat the best way to exploit him is just by folding.

      Assuming villain donked reasonably often this would be a good hand to put into your bluff-raising range. (However I think it's likely villain does not donk that often given his VPIP/PFR).

      I prefer betting turn mainly with the plan of betting certain rivers. I just don't think you will get villain off a draw/Jx often enough on the turn - he clearly has something he called flop raise with.

      My standard line would be just to give up immediately on the turn without further reads. And I suspect I may fold immediately to villain's flop donk also, depending on his stats.

      As played I think your river value bet is good. Maybe you can even bet a little bigger, but small sizing in general works best.
    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 135
      Yeah probably i missed again that i was facing a rather tight range on the flop.

      Like in a previous hand where i bluff 3bet a KJo vs a tight guy and i ended up being happy and started creating lines on how to value extract/protect my hand on a J87tt missing totally how marginal my spot was vs a tight range.

      Thnx for all the replies today w34z3l.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by Deomedes
      Yeah probably i missed again that i was facing a rather tight range on the flop.

      Like in a previous hand where i bluff 3bet a KJo vs a tight guy and i ended up being happy and started creating lines on how to value extract/protect my hand on a J87tt missing totally how marginal my spot was vs a tight range.
      Nods, +1

      Originally posted by Deomedes
      Thnx for all the replies today w34z3l.

      You're welcome, glad I could help out.
    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 135
      Now that i look back at the hand i would like to know how would you judge his play on the hand in general?

      And especially his check call on the turn.
      His ch- call wouldn't make more sense if he had QJ and turn was a Q that completes more straights? Isn't it too weak with AJ?
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by Deomedes
      Now that i look back at the hand i would like to know how would you judge his play on the hand in general?

      And especially his check call on the turn.
      His ch- call wouldn't make more sense if he had QJ and turn was a Q that completes more straights? Isn't it too weak with AJ?
      Tbh I have more of an issue with his bet/call flop than check/call turn.

      I think donking is decent on this texture, but I don't think calling a raise will be profitable at these stakes even with TPTK (your value range is sets + overpairs. Usually he doesn't beat any of your value range, so he can basically only hope you are semi-bluffing. (He beats KJ, but a lot of players flat KJ vs donk, even though I think raising is good on this texture).

      Basically he isn't necessarily suddenly good, just because he spikes an Ace. Even if he does suck out vs QQ/KK, there is no guarantee you will call. Your draws are still behind, your sets are still ahead, and your overpairs may not call. Betting for value may be ok, but check/calling may even be slightly stronger depending on how your flop-raising range is comprised and your tendency to bluff + fire barrels.