[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH QT trips missed value?

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,059
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($23.34)
      BB ($26.57)
      UTG ($20.91)
      Hero ($20)
      BTN ($43.81)

      Dealt to Hero T:heart: Q:spade:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, fold, fold

      FLOP ($1.30) 9:spade: Q:heart: 5:heart:

      Hero bets $0.80, BTN calls $0.80

      TURN ($2.90) 9:spade: Q:heart: 5:heart: Q:club:

      Hero bets $2.20, BTN calls $2.20

      RIVER ($7.30) 9:spade: Q:heart: 5:heart: Q:club: 3:club:

      Hero checks, BTN checks



      I was not betting river because I thought nothign calls there 3 streets what is worse, and also lets him bluff with busted draws or whatever. BUt now I look, the aggression on river is low, so I cannot expect enough bluffs, and still with JJ he could call something like 1/2 maybe with TT. This would be a bluff catch for him, but I am not having triple barrel image, so I assumed 2nd pair should fold.
  • 6 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      You have to look at his WTSD as well. Even if you don't have many hands, when he goes a lot to showdown you can be more inclined to think he likes to call. Furthermore, look at the positions you 2 are in: CO vs BU. Your range can have more draws than from UTG where you have good Qx, pairs and only medium draws... Also, his range is weaker so you are expected to bluff with a higher frequency.

      Second part is something to think about in general.. first part is what matters most here imo.
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 2,952
      you want to blufcatch someone who has 21 afq% on the River and have 31% WTS? Shouldnt hero bet something like 5.5$ on the River? Guy like him should call w/ JJ or something
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by ilidek
      you want to blufcatch someone who has 21 afq% on the River and have 31% WTS? Shouldnt hero bet something like 5.5$ on the River? Guy like him should call w/ JJ or something
      5.5 Might be a bit too much. I would go with 4.50 because his range can't be that strong ofc but if you have to choose between 'too small' or 'too big' just go with 'too big'.
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Thoughts on chk/calling flop manu?
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,059
      I think he is not agro enough to for us to c/c flop, does not bet vs missed cbets too much.
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      you can just rep so much busted draws here, esp if your image is somewhat aggro, i'd always bet a Q here vs an unknown

      QJ+ is a must bet imo, QT is pretty marginal i guess, but still i like to bet