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[NL2-NL10] AQ top pair against shove on river

    • mrbeast87
      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 194
      No Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10
      9 players
      Formatted by - Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking

      UTG - UTG ($3.58)
      UTG+1 - Hero ($11.04)
      UTG+2 - UTG+2 ($10.00)
      MP - MP ($11.16)
      MP2 - MP2 ($9.50)
      CO - CO ($9.56)
      BTN - BTN ($10.22)
      SB - SB ($10.17)
      BB - BB ($10.10) vpip 12 prf 10 agg% 50 # 281

      Preflop: ($0.14, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A:diamond: Q:spade:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 6 folds, BB calls $0.30

      Flop: 6:club: Q:heart: 4:spade: ($0.84, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BB raises to $1.52, Hero calls $0.92

      At this point I thought that he could have a weaker Q, or maybe 77-JJ, so I decided to call to re-evaluate on turn.

      Turn: 8:diamond: ($3.88, 2 players)
      BB bets $2.32, Hero calls $2.32

      I called here to keep the pot small and try to reach a cheap showdown.

      River: T:diamond: ($8.52, 2 players)
      BB bets $5.86 (all-in), 1 fold, Uncalled bet of $5.86 returned to BB

      Since he was a nit guy, I decided to fold. Maybe trips?
  • 2 replies
    • CPallo
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,350
      He never has trips on his range on such board. But most likely it's set :D
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Seems reasonable to fold river. Dont think he fires so many streets as a bluff. Important stats here are fold to flop cbet and raise flop cbet and turn cbet and river cbet.

      I think u can just fold turn. There arent too many draws so i think villain is fairly nutted here.

      Also i would like to point out that AQ>KK/AA for bluff catching here due to blockers against QQ. However if u think villain is capable of flatting AA KK preflop and then checkraising and barreling kff with overpairs then i think AA is better for bluffcatching.