Valuebet river?

    • Kingsurprise
      Kingsurprise
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 26.04.2008 Posts: 663
      SB: $117.82 (117.8 bb)
      BB: $64.96 (65 bb)
      UTG: $115.83 (115.8 bb)
      MP: $100 (100 bb) 17/13 ft3bet 83% barrel f/t/r 57(7) / 25(4) / 100(1) 217hands
      notecaddy: checkraise mid-set on drawy board
      Hero (CO): $113.26 (113.3 bb)
      BTN: $48.37 (48.4 bb) fish 40/10

      Preflop: Hero is CO with QSpade QHeart
      UTG folds, MP raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

      so Im flatting here because he's folding too much and behind me is the fish what

      Flop: ($9.50) 5Heart THeart 6Diamond (3 players)
      BB checks, MP bets $7.12, Hero calls $7.12, BB folds

      I think raising is kind of overplay

      Turn: ($23.74) 4Diamond (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $16.80, MP calls $16.80

      than the turn and he starts checking so I hardly discount 2pair+ (maybe some kombos gonna for checkraise) so biggest part of his range is jj+ tjs+ and 77-99, I think we can also discount some
      kombos of aa and kk. Against this range we have a clear valuebet.
      So he didnt checkraise, we can dicount mostly complete toprange.

      River: ($57.34) 8Club (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $33, MP raises to $73.08 and is all-in, Hero folds


      river is tricky I think
      In game I thougt the bet is good because he will call every T because both fd`s busted but I didnt think enough about the possible onecard str8, which will scare him perhaps more

      JJ,77,AhAs,AhAc,AsAc,KhKs,KhKc,KsKc,QdQc,8d8h,8d8s,8h8s,AdTd,AsTs,AcTc,KdTd,KsTs,KcTc,QdTd,QcTc,JdTd,JsTs,JcTc

      against this range we have 55% so its a value bet, but only if he calls every t

      my conclusion afterwards is, that the bet is fine against looser players and on a complete brick.

      In this case I should simply checkback because his callingrange is too stong. I`m sure he had in this case 77-88 what do you think?
  • 4 replies
    • retic
      retic
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.08.2006 Posts: 268
      hi!
      i basically think the same about the hand as u. but given the fact that the part of his calling range which u beat is really weak on this board what about betting the river really small. i play nl50 and so i dont know about players at nl 100. but a 17/13 which folds 83 % to 3 bet doesnt look like he is pulling out huge river bluffs or turning a made hand into a bluff.
      i would be really interessted how ur plan would be if u would be oop in this hand ?
    • alderfalder
      alderfalder
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 16.01.2010 Posts: 1,994
      I like this spot and would like you to think about a complete kind of gameplan in this spot. I assume this guy is kind of reggish and u'll meet him frequently at the tables. (if not, trying to balance anything is bullshit, so I'm just assuming he is the type of guy I described).

      His range could look like
      AhJh+,AdJd+,JTs+,JJ+,99,88,77

      your range could look like
      JJ,QQ,ATs,JTs,AhJh+,AdJd+,KhQh,KdQd (26kombos)

      I assume 3bet KK/AA pre and raise almost all your SC-type of hands (78s,79s T8s etc.) due to his high foldto3betpercentage.
      Moreover I think you checkback 77-99 on the turn and raise Sets on the flop.

      Because there aren't many combos I can have at the river as the hand played out I don't wwant to have different betsizes in this spot. When deciding to betting my drawy-hands turn I need to barrel them on the river (checkback AhQh here is always better than betting turn and give up river imo), so I need some valuebets to balance those bluffs

      If villain thinks about the way the hand played out he will see that you you will have it rarely. But I'm sure on NL100 people don't think about bluffraising enough, so I want to put pressure on the huge mediumshowdownvalue-part of his range (all T's as you mentioned).

      Therefore I like some kind of standard-big-betsize like you chose.
      His raise suxx but he'll just have it 9x% of the time. I'm sure you print money by valuetowning his Tx type of hands.
    • Kingsurprise
      Kingsurprise
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 26.04.2008 Posts: 663
      thx for both answers :)
      @retic
      oop in this hand I would barrel flop, turn and decide river. I think most of this kind of villains play their sets fast on this drawy board, so I probably can thin valuebet. I think on this special river is everything possible. If I know he bluffs busted fds, I can also checkcall or so. But vs this nit check/fold is also fine. Dont really now, assuming that his pre flatting range hit this board really sick and he have lots of 2pair kombos etc check/folding is probably the best. Valuebetting seems to me too thin.

      @alderfalder
      totaly agree with you and gameplan-wise I like my betsize too=)
      but I think this villain doesnt really think that wide, so we probably should bet smaller too get every ten calling, assuming that he is almost never bluffraises against my smaller bet.

      I hope my english understandable^^


      pleno1 also commented this hand in my blog he said, that vs this villain my bet is more a bluffbet than a valuebet, he assumes that villain are more likely to fold aa than calling jj
    • alderfalder
      alderfalder
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 16.01.2010 Posts: 1,994
      no worries, English seems to be a language you can do everything with and still everyone will understand:)

      I did a 2month-internship in India... I don't know which language they were talking, it was some fancy new stuff with English elements in it. They just kept on talking and finally I always got it.

      So I stopped worrying about myself being not understandable and you should do the same:D


      As soon as you have a read or some more stats (WTSD maybe?) for this player balancing is the last thing that matters. If he is kind of moneyscared and weak go for the maximum amoutn he'll pay with a T (even if it's 5$), and don't care about the possibility of getting bluffraised (just happens not often enough that he's exploiting you in any way^^)