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[NL20-NL50] NL30 AA top set. River size?

    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Silver
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      Ongame Network $30.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2129125
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $31.29 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 2.4, Hands: 304
      Hero (SB): $30.60 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 2.9, Hands: 42432
      BB: $30.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 7, AF: 4.5, Hands: 850
      UTG: $52.68 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 2.5, Hands: 633
      34% agg. freq. 18% river
      MP: $39.87 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 0.0, Hands: 101
      CO: $31.81 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 2.4, Hands: 304

      Pre Flop: ($0.45) Hero is SB with A :spade: A :club:
      UTG calls $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.20

      Flop: ($3.30) A :heart: 5 :club: Q :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.20, UTG calls $2.20

      Turn: ($7.70) 3 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.00, UTG calls $6

      River: ($19.70) 7 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $20.90, UTG calls $20.90

      How would you play the river with me blocking a lot of TP combos? He looks passive on the river, so i thought he won`t bluff often and he will no value bet thin, for me to ch/r. I thought he is always folding Qx vs almost any size, so i decided to shove for maximum value?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      On this river we definitely have only 2 options
      1) Shove
      2) Check/raise

      I think over here it makes more sense to just shove and hope he has the last Ace. If we had JJ on a JTX board with a similar suited runout, then check/raise makes more sense, simply because way more draws miss. And people play way more combos of AX preflop as compared to JX.

      So I like a shove here.

      Nice hand.