[NL20-NL50] #4 AA nl25

    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 3,069
      UTG: $25 (100 bb)
      MP: $49.67 (198.7 bb)
      CO: $41.30 (165.2 bb)
      BTN: $24.30 (97.2 bb)
      Hero (SB): $27.26 (109 bb)
      BB: $25.43 (101.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:club: A:diamond:
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.30, BB folds, BTN calls $1.55

      Flop: ($4.85) 8:heart: T:heart: 6:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.90, BTN raises to $6.30, Hero raises to $23.50, BTN calls $15.70

      Turn: ($48.85) 3:spade: (2 players)
      River: ($48.85) 8:spade: (2 players)

      28/20 fold to 3b from BU 61% BU steal 44% raise cbet 17% 1.6k hands

      Should I fold here? This is potential range but this guy raise cbets a lot

      Stół: 8:heart: T:heart: 6:club:
             Equity  Wygrana  Podział
      MP2    25.08%   24.56%    0.52% { AdAc }
      MP3    74.92%   74.41%    0.52% { TT, 88, 66, 97s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, Jh9h }


      notes:
      CC KK COvsMP raise cbet/c (50bb)
  • 5 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,321
      Hey Ilidek,

      Tough spot, let's break it down.

      44% steal, Ft3bet of 61%. Continues with 39% of 44% range. = 17.16 total range. We are going to include all big pockets in his range because we saw him CC KK vs MP open. 4betting history is also useful in determining someones call vs 3bet range.

      So depolarised 17% range - 66+, A8s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, ATo+, KTo+, QJo

      We then ideally need to know if he's following a polarised or merged flop raising strategy. Let's assume merged because this will give us the worst case scenario in terms of equity.

      These drawier boards are easier for villain to defend, I'd expect his raise cbet% to increase slightly. Let's take 22% of our 17% flop range which means villain defends with roughly 3.7% total range. Let's take the top hands (assuming merged flop raise strategy here).

      QQ+,TT,88,66,T8s,97s,AhKh,AhQh,KhQh,AhJh,KhJh,QhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Kh9h,Qh9h,Jh9h,7h6h flop defend range.

      AA has 46% equity vs this range. Theoretically you have to defend. You can't really shove for value though. Best option is to call flop and evaluate your equity depending on the turn card.

      If villain is raising a polarised flop range (usually the best strategy vs a reg), your equity goes up - but you won't get called 100% of the time by a polarised range, so again best option is to flat flop and evaluate equity depending on turn card.

      Btw, just so there is no confusion. In normal circumstances this is an easy flop fold. There is a special exception here because of villains stats over a reasonable sample.
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 3,069
      Yeah vs unk I would fold becasue I don't like 3b/c that much and by b/c I'll have a lot of troubles but this guy were agro.

      Let's assume your gameplan we bet he raised we called:
      pot on the T: 17.45$, efective stacks: 15.7$

      I am OOP we have less than PSB he may bet or xb, when he bet again I am
      probably behind, when he xb he has chance to draw

      on 9 / 7 / :heart: (except Ace) I need to fold = 8+6=14 => I will give up on ~30% flops

      ofc on the T I play x/shove on 70% of the flops

      but how to play when he play xb and on the River we have 9 / 7 / :heart: 9+7=15 what happens again in 30% of case

      maybe call his raise on the flop and donk shove on board different than 9 / 7 / :heart: (except Ace) IP I would just call because it's easy. I would just call and fold on 9 / 7 / :heart: (except Ace) and shove on everything else but OOP things get more complicated.

      BTW Thanks a lot for such a huge and good evaluation!
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,321
      Originally posted by ilidek
      I am OOP we have less than PSB he may bet or xb, when he bet again I am
      probably behind, when he xb he has chance to draw
      Presumably if he plays flops this aggressively he can barrel turn with his draws. If the turn card is safe I'd stack off. By safe I usually mean any non heart.

      If a heart hits it's close, possibly break even call due to dead money, so I'd fold. If the turn is a blank you get your money in in an ok spot though. You become a slight favourite vs his range if something like the 5 hits and can profitably donk bet for value if you think villain might check-back the turn.

      Vs a polarised flop-raise range letting him barrel has a higher EV if he's aggressive, because he might fold to donk.

      If he's merged, shoving turn is probably fine, but if you think he's aggressive, probably better to let him bet anyway. Calling vs his turn bet is clearly profitable as a result of pot-odds, whereas betting for value is only just going to profitable with 52% equity and presumably no fold-equity.
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 3,069
      Thanks a lot for this! Those are such a great conclusions. I wrote them down to my doc file to read them as a part of warm up.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,321
      No probs, glad I could help.